Polls Show Trump and Cruz Leading; Trump-NBC Lawsuit and Roberson Case Jury Foreman’s Statement Draw Attention
Welcome back, friends
A recent Morning Consult poll shows former President Donald Trump with a seven-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas, while Sen. Ted Cruz holds a narrower three-point advantage over challenger Rep. Colin Allred in the U.S. Senate race. Following early voting, Cruz’s campaign released a closing ad targeting Allred on issues including transgender women in sports, border security, and inflation—a move suggesting Cruz’s team sees the race as close, in line with recent polling data. Meanwhile, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit in Texas against CBS, claiming deceptive editing in a "60 Minutes" interview with Harris. Additionally, Steve Cubstead, jury foreman in the 2003 Robert Roberson case, has voiced opposition to calls for a retrial, reaffirming the original conviction based on substantial evidence.
Today’s Insights:
- Recent Texas Polling in Presidential and Senate Races
- Trump Files Texas Lawsuit Against CBS Over Interview Editing
- Jury Foreman Speaks Out in Robert Roberson Case
Recent Texas Polling in Presidential and Senate Races
According to a recent Morning Consult poll conducted from October 22-31, 2024, among 2,120 likely voters in Texas, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 52% to 45% in the 2024 presidential race, marking a seven-point advantage. In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Ted Cruz holds a narrower lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, with Cruz at 47% and Allred at 44%. Following early voting, where most ballots have already been cast, Cruz’s campaign released a closing ad that targets Allred on three issues: his support for allowing transgender women in women’s sports, his stance on border security, and the topic of inflation. Cruz’s decision to run this ad after early voting suggests his team views the race as close, aligning with recent polling data that shows a competitive contest.
See Cruz campaign video posted Brad Johnson on X
Trump Files Texas Lawsuit Against CBS Over Interview Editing
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit in the Northern District of Texas against CBS, alleging that a "60 Minutes" interview with Vice President Kamala Harris was deceptively edited to misrepresent her statements. The lawsuit claims that the broadcast altered Harris's responses, creating a misleading narrative that impacted public perception. Filed in a court with only one judge—a 2019 Trump appointee—the case was guaranteed to be heard by this judge. Trump’s legal team argues that CBS’s editing practices constitute defamation, seeking redress under Texas law for the perceived harm.
Jury Foreman Speaks Out in Robert Roberson Case
Steve Cubstead, the jury foreman in the 2003 Anderson County trial that convicted Robert Roberson of murdering his two-year-old daughter, Nikki Curtis, has publicly criticized recent efforts to push for a retrial. Cubstead emphasized that the jury’s decision was based on extensive evidence, including bruises on Nikki’s face and a fractured skull, rather than solely on the disputed "Shaken Baby Syndrome" theory. He recently re-engaged with the case after Roberson’s attorney visited him at home, attempting to persuade him to review the evidence again—a request he declined. Cubstead refuted claims by a former juror that the jury’s decision was based only on Shaken Baby Syndrome, calling such statements misleading.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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Texas Political Spotlight
In solidarity with the Texas Hill Country, please visit TXBiz News’ page to see ways to support our state through this hardship: Hill Country Flood Relief
Welcome back, friends
Governor Abbott has called a high-stakes special session packed with issues ranging from flood response to redistricting, abortion, and THC regulation, just weeks after deadly storms swept Central Texas. Meanwhile, Sen. Angela Paxton announced her divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton amidst a heated US Senate GOP primary. Lastly, in Boca Chica, SpaceX’s newest project is drawing attention from environmental advocates worried about its impact on coastal dunes.
Today’s Insights:
- Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
- Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
- Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
Governor Greg Abbott has called Texas lawmakers back to Austin for a July 21 special session with an 18-item agenda including issues such as natural disaster preparedness, abortion restrictions, THC regulation, and congressional redistricting. The top four items address the catastrophic flooding across Central Texas that left over 100 people dead and more than 160 still missing. Abbott is urging swift action to improve early warning systems and emergency communications, and to provide financial support for flood-impacted areas. “We must ensure better preparation for such events in the future,” the governor said while visiting Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit regions.
While flood response dominates the immediate urgency, the governor's agenda also reopens contentious debates that stalled during the regular session earlier this year. These include efforts to eliminate the STAAR test, limit abortion access, particularly regarding medical abortion, and regulate hemp-derived THC products without imposing a full ban. Abbott’s recent veto of a GOP-led THC ban signaled a more measured approach focused on potency limits potential regulation. At the same time, he is calling for legislation to “further protect unborn children and their mothers,” in what could become another high-profile ideological fight at the Capitol.
Perhaps the most politically consequential item is mid-decade redistricting. Abbott cites constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice, but critics, including Texas Democrats and advocacy groups, argue the effort is designed to redraw key districts in favor of Republicans ahead of the 2026 elections. Civil rights groups have also raised concerns about the inclusion of legislation to “protect women’s privacy in sex-segregated spaces,” interpreting it as a revival of what critics referred to as "bathroom bills". With lawmakers convening for up to 30 days, and the possibility of additional sessions, Texans can expect legislative action for a while.
Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
Sen. Angela Paxton announced Thursday she is filing for divorce from her husband, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In her statement, the McKinney Republican said she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that recent discoveries made continuing the marriage untenable. The couple have long been prominent figures in Texas politics, with Angela Paxton holding the Senate seat her husband once occupied. Ken Paxton attributed the separation to the “pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”
The announcement comes as Ken Paxton mounts a high-profile primary challenge against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Cameron County commissioners have approved a construction permit allowing SpaceX to build an air separator facility near the sand dunes of Boca Chica Beach, a decision that has sparked environmental concerns among local residents. The facility—described as a compact industrial plant with 20 structures on 1.66 acres—will separate nitrogen and oxygen from the air to support rocket launches, reducing the need for over 200 truck deliveries per launch from Brownsville. Although SpaceX agreed to mitigation measures and shifting construction further inland to minimize dune disruption, critics remain skeptical, citing limited public input and concerns over the project's impact on vegetation and wildlife. The permit requires SpaceX to restore or replace any damaged dunes, with enforcement authority resting with the Texas General Land Office.
“I think that it’s clearly true today how the government of Cameron County is kind of falling over to please SpaceX”
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Senate Race In Monday’s Austin press conference on the 2-year anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Democrat Colin Allred included his wife Alexandra Eber as a featured speaker on abortion issues. Eber discussed challenges faced by pregnant women and said that “Politicians in Texas, like Ted Cruz, have done the unthinkable, which is to make it ever harder for women in those unthinkable moments.”
The Texas Politics Project’s June polling found that 45% of Texans believe abortion laws should be less strict, with 23% preferring no change, and 20% preferring stricter abortion laws.
Cruz leads Allred 45% to 34%, according to the Texas Politics Project’s June poll. Allred leads Cruz among Hispanic voters, 38% to 34%, while Cruz led 18-29 year olds 32% to 30%.
Speaker Race The Republican Party of Texas listed “No Democrat Chairs” as its fourth highest legislative priority in its recently released 2024 platform. Last regular session, Speaker Dade Phelan appointed 9 of the 37 House committee chairmanships to Democrats. Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes in the runoff primary election and currently faces two challengers for the speakership: Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. Tom Oliverson.
Dade Phelan spending Speaker Dade Phelan made $5M in contributions to Texas House 2024 primary candidates and PACs. His largest 20 expenditures were:
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you the latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Texas campaign spending
Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC contributed at least $10M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Texans United for a Conservative Majority contributed at least $7.7M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Gov. Greg Abbott spent nearly contributed almost $9M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Senate Race
UT Tyler’s June 11-20 Texas Registered Voter Survey shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 43% to 39%. Respondents listed securing the border as the most important policy issue facing Texas, followed by inflation and reproductive rights.
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In a Dallas WFAA Inside Texas Politics interview, incumbent Democrat Rep. Mihaela Plesa responded to claims that her district is one of the likeliest to flip. “We do the work, they said that last cycle and we were out-funded 4 to 1 … and we won.” The interview also covers school choice, the Speaker race, IVF, grid infrastructure, and other issues.
Biden debate performance
The Texas Tribune reported on down-ballot discussions following President Biden’s debate performance last Thursday. Former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, currently challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, wrote in a text message that “Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way … Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.”
Democratic State Rep. Ron Reynolds of Missouri City wrote on Instagram that he was “very disturbed” by the debate and supported the nomination of VP Kamala Harris in place of President Biden. Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey took an alternate stance, encouraging members to not “say anything that they will regret later before everybody’s had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit.”
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
