Bernie Sanders (24%), former Vice President Joe Biden (22%) and Elizabeth Warren (15%) lead the Democratic presidential field, according to a new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll (PDF). Sanders’s support had doubled since the October poll. Michael Bloomberg (10%), Pete Buttigieg (7%) and Andrew Yang (6%), who has ended his campaign, are the only other candidates polling above 3%.
Looking at the general election, the poll produced some muddy results. A slight majority of respondents (52%) said they would not vote for President Trump, but Trump outpolled every single potential Democratic opponent. That contradiction likely arises from self-identified independent voters, 62% of whom would vote against the president but fewer of whom would vote for a specific Democrat.
Trump received a consistent 45%-47% support from respondents in the head-to-head horse race polls, faring best against Pete Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar (+5%) and worst against Sanders and Yang (+2%). All of the Democrats are underwater when it comes to their net favorability ratings. Yang fared best at 33/35 (-2).
Trump’s job approval rating was 45/48 (-3), down from the 52/44 (+8) rating in the June poll. Most Democrats were underwater by double digits:
- Bloomberg 26/51 (-25)
- Biden 33/53 (-20)
- Warren 35/52 (-17)
- Sanders 36/52 (-16)
- Buttigieg 28/42 (-14)
Amy Klobuchar was an exception at 35/39 (-4), and it should be noted that this poll was in the field prior to the New Hampshire primary, where Klobuchar finished third.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s approval rating was 36/39 (-3). Importantly, the percentage of respondents who “disapprove strongly” of his performance dropped to 30% from 44% in October.
The poll of 1,200 Texas registered voters was in the field January 31 to February 9. It has a stated margin of error of ±2.8%. The Democratic primary margin of error is ±4.1%.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
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