President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48%-41%, among “all voters” and by a slightly smaller 49.5%-44% margin among voters who indicated they were “extremely likely to vote,” according to a new YouGov poll (PDF) conducted for the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and Rice Univ.’s Baker Institute. Nearly 80% of each candidate’s voters said their choice was “very strong,” and less than 3% of either candidate’s voters said they might change their mind.
It is Trump’s largest lead in a reputable Texas poll since May.
Trump leads among Anglos (62%-27%) and men (56%-38%). Biden leads among Hispanics/Latinos (47%-38%), Black voters (82%-6%) and women (43%-41%). About one out of every seven women voters are unsure compared to about one out of every 20 men.
Trump’s favorability rating is 48/49 (35/42 “very” favorable/unfavorable), and Biden’s is 39/52 (22/43 “very”). Trump’s “handling of the coronavirus outbreak” led 22% of respondents to say they are more likely and 30% to say they are less likely to vote for him.
Interestingly, the poll asked respondents about their views of the state Republican Party. Since Trump’s election in 2016, “almost one in five Texans (19.2%) now has a more negative opinion of the Texas GOP than they had before his election, while only a mere 3.5% now have a more favorable opinion of the party.”
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leads Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 44%-37%, among “all voters” and 47%-41% among the likeliest voters. Cornyn’s favorability rating is 37/36, and Hegar’s is 34/21. About three out of every 10 voters “don’t know enough” about Hegar to have an opinion.
The survey of 892 respondents was conducted online. It was in the field August 3-14. A margin of error was not indicated.
Recent Presidential Polls
- Biden 47, Trump 46 – Morning Consult (August)
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July)
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
- Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News (July)
- Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
- Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
- Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
- Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
- Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
- Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
- Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
- Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
- Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
- Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
- Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
- Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
- Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
- Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
- Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)
Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.
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