TXLege Election Day Countdown (T-80 Days)
By Jeff Blaylock - Founder & Senior Editor
August, 16, 2024
We begin the final sprint to Election Day with many things already known, or all but certain, and can speculate on some down-ballot impacts of the changing presidential race.
State Legislative Control Unlikely to Shift
The state House and Senate will remain solidly in Republican hands. Enough House seats are rated Safe Republican (47) or Likely Republican (30) to clinch the majority even if Democrats were to sweep everything else. Republicans should win most of the collective seats rated Lean Republican (8) and Toss Up (3), and the party should pickup at least one Democrat-held seat. We rate open HD80, where longtime Rep. Tracy King (D) is not seeking re-election, as Likely Republican. We have HD74, which is being defended by Rep. Eddie Morales, rated Lean Republican.
Any change in statewide leadership will thus depend on two factors outside the voters’ power. In the House, it would require the members to elect a different leader over Speaker Dade Phelan, Gov. Abbott, and Lt. Gov. Patrick are not on the ballot this year and will remain in those positions unless a second Trump presidency results in one or both being tapped for federal positions. If this were to happen, it would likely happen during the legislative session. This would also apply to other statewide offices if any of them were chosen by Trump to serve in his administration.
Potential Impact of Harris at the Top of the Ballot
Replacing President Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ballot will have no tangible impact at the state level, but it could have intangible impacts that affect the margins. According to the most recent Texas Politics Project poll, Biden (39/53) and Harris (35/51) had nearly the same approval ratings. Importantly, Harris has nearly the same strong negatives as Biden but slightly lower positives.
The table compares the favorability ratings of Biden, Harris and former President Trump split out by key voting groups. The numbers in parentheses are the percentage of poll respondents who said their approval and disapproval was strong.
Group
Biden
Harris
Trump
Overall
39/53 (20/44)
35/51 (15/43)
45/49 (20/41)
Independents
20/66 (4/55)
18/58 (2/50)
31/59 (16/50)
Women
38/51 (19/42)
35/49 (14/41)
52/42 (36/35)
Black voters
67/21 (36/14)
64/19 (33/12)
28/65 (15/59)
Hispanic voters
41/47 (21/35)
41/42 (17/34)
37/53 (26/45)
Ages 18-29
50/33 (24/18)
47/23 (15/12)
38/50 (20/39)
4yr college degree
41/51 (23/43)
37/49 (17/41)
42/51 (27/41)
Suburban
39/55 (20/46)
37/54 (17/48)
43/51 (27/45)
Keep in mind that dividing respondents into these groups greatly decreases the poll’s sample size and thus greatly increases the margin of error. With that in mind, any ratings split between Biden and Harris could be non-existent. However, Harris was not the nominee when this poll was conducted, so she may rise or fall compared to Biden as voters learn more about her as the Democratic nominee.
Harris's Potential to Boost Voter Turnout
Harris may have intangible impacts on the state’s voters. Early indications point to increased optimism among Democrats compared to having the ticket led by Biden, and this could translate into marginal improvements in get out the vote efforts. We may also see an increase in turnout among urban and younger voters – two key blocs of voters for Democrats whose turnout typically lags compared to other groups. However, it is unlikely that Harris will be able to duplicate the surge in turnout created by former President Obama’s candidacy in 2008.
Limited Impact on Statewide and Competitive Races
Any Harris-related impacts will not be enough to flip the state’s electoral votes or change the outcome of statewide races, but they could affect competitive legislative and congressional races. Such impacts will be highly limited and localized. There are simply far too few competitive races. A total of 17 legislative and congressional races are rated as Lean Republican, Lean Democrat or Toss Up out of the 203 on the ballot. One other race – Democrat-held HD80, noted above – is likely to flip, so we will include it here.
All 18 of these districts are projected to be more Democratic than the state as a whole, but not enough for Democratic candidates to prevail in most of them. All but one of them has moved more than 5 points towards one party or the other since 2016:
Electorate Shift Since 2016
Note: This chart includes HD144, which would be rated as Lean Democrat except that Rep. Mary Ann Perez is unopposed.
The lone exception among the competitive seats is HD118, where Rep. John Lujan (R) is seeking re-election against Kristian Carranza. This district has moved less than 1% toward Democrats since 2016.
The geographic distribution of these shifts is notable and expected. All the competitive seats becoming more favorable to Republicans are in South Texas and the Coastal Bend. All the competitive seats becoming more favorable to Democrats are in the suburbs surrounding Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio.
Don’t discount the possibility that Harris’s candidacy also energizes lower turnout blocs of Trump supporters in the state generally and these districts in particular.
Will Key Issues Motivate Voters to the Polls?
While immigration and border issues remain strong motivators for Republican voters, the big question for this election is the extent to which abortion access and women’s issues are or remain strong motivators for Democrats. The latest Texas Politics Poll revealed:
- 48% of respondents strongly oppose preventing Texas women from accessing abortion in others states where it is legally available
- 46% strongly oppose preventing women from obtaining “medicated abortion pills”
- 47% strongly oppose penalizing Texas companies that pay for employees to travel to other states to obtain an abortion; and
- 57% strongly oppose preventing women from using IVF procedures.
Group
Restrict Travel to Other States
Prohibit Abortion Pills
Penalize Texas Businesses
Prohibit Access to IVF
Overall
24/63 (11/48)
28/62 (16/46)
28/60 (16/47)
16/68 (7/57)
Independents
12/74 (7/58)
22/65 (10/51)
16/69 (11/57)
15/66 (7/56)
Women
24/65 (12/50)
26/64 (15/49)
25/62 (15/49)
14/70 (6/60)
Black voters
17/71 (8/58)
17/72 (7/59)
15/70 (6/58)
16/71 (8/64)
Hispanic voters
31/58 (13/45)
28/62 (19/45)
26/62 (16/47)
20/59 (7/47)
Ages 18-29
39/52 (15/41)
32/58 (19/41)
37/54 (16/41)
23/56 (9/47)
4yr college degree
21/70 (12/53)
28/64 (15/50)
28/61 (15/51)
13/74 (6/60)
Suburban
20/70 (10/56)
24/68 (14/53)
26/64 (15/53)
12/75 (5/65)
Same caveats about smaller sample sizes and larger errors in the split-out groups, but it is clear such policies have some pretty high negatives, particularly denying access to IVF, particularly among suburban voters and voters with 4-year college degrees. These are key voting blocs in the suburban districts that have been trending more Democratic, so a case can be made that some of those Republican-held competitive seats could see a big enough movement to flip them.
Turnout should be on the higher side as this state goes, but neither party will particularly benefit from it, unless Harris the candidate is closer in appeal to Obama than Biden.
Buckle your seat belts. It’s going to be a rough ride.
This post has been updated to correct an error.
Meet The Author
Jeff Blaylock, Founder and Senior Editor brings over 25 years of political expertise, encompassing analysis, campaign management, government service, and advocacy. With a focus on Texas elections and legislative processes, Jeff's career includes roles such as Chief Committee Clerk for the Texas House of Representatives' State Affairs and Financial Institutions Committees.
His leadership ensured no point of order was sustained against committee legislation.
Jeff also served as a policy and budget analyst at the White House's Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, in addition to various management roles in national political campaigns. He began sharing his election insights in 2005, publishing Texas Election Source for nearly a decade. Jeff's comprehensive understanding of public policy and its impact on elections was honed during his tenure as Managing Director at Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton Strategies), where he advised clients on legislative strategies, public affairs, crisis communication, and brand reputation.
He holds a Bachelor's degree in journalism with a political science minor from Texas Christian University and a Master's in public policy from Georgetown University. Currently, Jeff serves as the VP of Client Services at Kith, a leading crisis management consulting firm.
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Texas Political Spotlight
In solidarity with the Texas Hill Country, please visit TXBiz News’ page to see ways to support our state through this hardship: Hill Country Flood Relief
Welcome back, friends
Governor Abbott has called a high-stakes special session packed with issues ranging from flood response to redistricting, abortion, and THC regulation, just weeks after deadly storms swept Central Texas. Meanwhile, Sen. Angela Paxton announced her divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton amidst a heated US Senate GOP primary. Lastly, in Boca Chica, SpaceX’s newest project is drawing attention from environmental advocates worried about its impact on coastal dunes.
Today’s Insights:
- Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
- Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
- Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
Governor Greg Abbott has called Texas lawmakers back to Austin for a July 21 special session with an 18-item agenda including issues such as natural disaster preparedness, abortion restrictions, THC regulation, and congressional redistricting. The top four items address the catastrophic flooding across Central Texas that left over 100 people dead and more than 160 still missing. Abbott is urging swift action to improve early warning systems and emergency communications, and to provide financial support for flood-impacted areas. “We must ensure better preparation for such events in the future,” the governor said while visiting Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit regions.
While flood response dominates the immediate urgency, the governor's agenda also reopens contentious debates that stalled during the regular session earlier this year. These include efforts to eliminate the STAAR test, limit abortion access, particularly regarding medical abortion, and regulate hemp-derived THC products without imposing a full ban. Abbott’s recent veto of a GOP-led THC ban signaled a more measured approach focused on potency limits potential regulation. At the same time, he is calling for legislation to “further protect unborn children and their mothers,” in what could become another high-profile ideological fight at the Capitol.
Perhaps the most politically consequential item is mid-decade redistricting. Abbott cites constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice, but critics, including Texas Democrats and advocacy groups, argue the effort is designed to redraw key districts in favor of Republicans ahead of the 2026 elections. Civil rights groups have also raised concerns about the inclusion of legislation to “protect women’s privacy in sex-segregated spaces,” interpreting it as a revival of what critics referred to as "bathroom bills". With lawmakers convening for up to 30 days, and the possibility of additional sessions, Texans can expect legislative action for a while.
Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
Sen. Angela Paxton announced Thursday she is filing for divorce from her husband, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In her statement, the McKinney Republican said she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that recent discoveries made continuing the marriage untenable. The couple have long been prominent figures in Texas politics, with Angela Paxton holding the Senate seat her husband once occupied. Ken Paxton attributed the separation to the “pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”
The announcement comes as Ken Paxton mounts a high-profile primary challenge against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Cameron County commissioners have approved a construction permit allowing SpaceX to build an air separator facility near the sand dunes of Boca Chica Beach, a decision that has sparked environmental concerns among local residents. The facility—described as a compact industrial plant with 20 structures on 1.66 acres—will separate nitrogen and oxygen from the air to support rocket launches, reducing the need for over 200 truck deliveries per launch from Brownsville. Although SpaceX agreed to mitigation measures and shifting construction further inland to minimize dune disruption, critics remain skeptical, citing limited public input and concerns over the project's impact on vegetation and wildlife. The permit requires SpaceX to restore or replace any damaged dunes, with enforcement authority resting with the Texas General Land Office.
“I think that it’s clearly true today how the government of Cameron County is kind of falling over to please SpaceX”
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Senate Race In Monday’s Austin press conference on the 2-year anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Democrat Colin Allred included his wife Alexandra Eber as a featured speaker on abortion issues. Eber discussed challenges faced by pregnant women and said that “Politicians in Texas, like Ted Cruz, have done the unthinkable, which is to make it ever harder for women in those unthinkable moments.”
The Texas Politics Project’s June polling found that 45% of Texans believe abortion laws should be less strict, with 23% preferring no change, and 20% preferring stricter abortion laws.
Cruz leads Allred 45% to 34%, according to the Texas Politics Project’s June poll. Allred leads Cruz among Hispanic voters, 38% to 34%, while Cruz led 18-29 year olds 32% to 30%.
Speaker Race The Republican Party of Texas listed “No Democrat Chairs” as its fourth highest legislative priority in its recently released 2024 platform. Last regular session, Speaker Dade Phelan appointed 9 of the 37 House committee chairmanships to Democrats. Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes in the runoff primary election and currently faces two challengers for the speakership: Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. Tom Oliverson.
Dade Phelan spending Speaker Dade Phelan made $5M in contributions to Texas House 2024 primary candidates and PACs. His largest 20 expenditures were:
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
TXElects Election Updates
We bring you the latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Texas campaign spending
Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC contributed at least $10M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Texans United for a Conservative Majority contributed at least $7.7M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Gov. Greg Abbott spent nearly contributed almost $9M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Senate Race
UT Tyler’s June 11-20 Texas Registered Voter Survey shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 43% to 39%. Respondents listed securing the border as the most important policy issue facing Texas, followed by inflation and reproductive rights.
HD 70
In a Dallas WFAA Inside Texas Politics interview, incumbent Democrat Rep. Mihaela Plesa responded to claims that her district is one of the likeliest to flip. “We do the work, they said that last cycle and we were out-funded 4 to 1 … and we won.” The interview also covers school choice, the Speaker race, IVF, grid infrastructure, and other issues.
Biden debate performance
The Texas Tribune reported on down-ballot discussions following President Biden’s debate performance last Thursday. Former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, currently challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, wrote in a text message that “Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way … Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.”
Democratic State Rep. Ron Reynolds of Missouri City wrote on Instagram that he was “very disturbed” by the debate and supported the nomination of VP Kamala Harris in place of President Biden. Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey took an alternate stance, encouraging members to not “say anything that they will regret later before everybody’s had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit.”
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
