Texas Political Spotlight

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Texas lawmakers are advancing strict new bail laws to keep more violent offenders in jail, sparking a heated debate over public safety and constitutional rights. Meanwhile, a potential Senate showdown between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton threatens to reshape the Texas GOP, as the party’s conservative factions battle for dominance.

Today’s Insights:

• Texas Lawmakers Push to Deny Bail for Violent Crimes, Undocumented Immigrants
• A Senate Bid by Paxton Could Shake Texas GOP Even More

Texas Lawmakers Push to Deny Bail for Violent Crimes, Undocumented Immigrants

A Texas Senate committee has advanced a set of bills aimed at tightening the state’s bail system, seeking to keep more defendants in jail while awaiting trial for violent crimes. Senate Bill 9, authored by Sen. Joan Huffman, expands a GOP-backed law that restricts the use of cashless bail for certain offenses, adding crimes such as unlawful possession of a firearm, violation of a family violence protective order, terroristic threats, and fentanyl-related murder. Additionally, Senate Joint Resolution 5 proposes a constitutional amendment that would give judges greater discretion to deny bail entirely for individuals accused of crimes such as murder, aggravated kidnapping, and assault with a weapon. The measures, which received unanimous approval in committee, now head to the full Senate for consideration.

Another key proposal, Senate Joint Resolution 1, seeks to prevent undocumented immigrants accused of felonies from being granted bail, aligning with the Laken Riley Act, a federal law signed earlier this year. The resolution, named "Jocelyn’s Law" after a 12-year-old Houston girl murdered by two undocumented men, has drawn significant attention, with supporters arguing that it strengthens public safety and ensures accountability for non-citizens accused of serious crimes. During the committee hearing, emotional testimony from crime victims and their families underscored concerns about repeat offenders being released on bond, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick emphasized his commitment to passing the legislation, signaling potential pressure on the Texas House to follow suit.

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Committee testimony was amplified on Wednesday, with critics of the proposed legislation, including civil rights groups and legal experts, warning that the measures could exacerbate jail overcrowding, disproportionately affect low-income defendants, and restrict judicial discretion. They argue that pretrial detention based on financial status rather than risk assessment undermines due process and could lead to unintended consequences, such as an increase in recidivism. Immigration advocates have also raised concerns about the broad language of "Jocelyn’s Law," cautioning that it could encompass individuals with lawful status who have pending visa applications. As the debate moves forward, the proposals are expected to spark further discussion on the balance between public safety and constitutional rights in Texas’ criminal justice system.

A Senate Bid by Paxton Could Shake Texas GOP Even More

Senator John Cornyn, a longtime fixture in Texas Republican politics, may soon find himself in an intense primary battle as his party shifts further to the right. Attorney General Ken Paxton, a vocal critic of Cornyn, has strongly hinted at a Senate bid, arguing that the incumbent has not faced a serious conservative challenge in his two decades in office. In a recent interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Paxton said he is still weighing his options but expects to make a decision in the coming months. Meanwhile, Cornyn has made clear that he intends to seek reelection in 2026, setting up what could be a defining contest for the future of Texas Republicans.

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Cornyn, who has held powerful leadership positions within the Senate, has built a reputation as a key player in the Republican establishment. However, his approval among the party’s base has declined, with recent polling indicating that Paxton would be a formidable opponent if he enters the race. Data from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin shows Cornyn’s approval rating among Republican voters at 48%, significantly trailing Paxton’s 60%. Texas’ junior senator, Ted Cruz, remains the most popular Republican statewide with a 78% approval rating.

The tensions between Cornyn and Paxton go beyond electoral politics, with both men embodying different wings of the Republican Party. Cornyn has taken criticism from hardline conservatives for supporting bipartisan legislation, including a gun safety bill passed in the aftermath of the Uvalde school shooting. Paxton, on the other hand, has embraced a more combative, populist approach, aligning himself closely with President Donald Trump and pushing legal challenges against the 2020 election results. Trump’s endorsement could play a pivotal role in the race, as both candidates seek to align themselves with his influence.

Paxton is not the only potential challenger Cornyn could face. Several Texas Republicans, including U.S. Representatives Beth Van Duyne, Wesley Hunt, and Ronny Jackson, have been discussed as possible contenders, though none have officially announced their intentions. With the Texas primary set to be a pivotal battleground in the 2026 elections, a contested race could become a broader referendum on the Republican Party’s future, whether it upholds traditional conservatism or continues its shift toward a more hard-right ideology.

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