House Race Analyses, Straight-ticket Voting
06/04/2017

Straight-party Vote Analysis for HD115

TXElects

In a state where single-punch, straight-party voters continue to gain influence in determining election outcomes, it was the voters who work their way through the whole ballot that swung HD115 last year. By just over a thousand votes, Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving) won re-election in a district that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won by more than 4,700 votes.

Rinaldi received in excess of 3,800 more votes than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, making him one of the highest vote-getters in his district’s precincts not named Clinton, and he was one of just four legislators to win despite facing a deficit in single-punch voting.


Rinaldi defeated Carrollton attorney Dorotha Ocker, 53%-40%, among the district’s “full-ballot” voters. His double-digit margin was consistent with other down-ballot Republicans, but it diverged significantly from the top of the ballot. Clinton defeated Trump, 49%-36%, among those same voters.

That Ocker came close to winning, and Clinton won outright, this northwestern Dallas Co. district – long a Republican stronghold* – is indicative of how far the Democratic Party has come here. For the first time in recent history, more straight-party Democratic votes were cast in HD115’s precincts than straight-party Republican votes.

Ocker received in excess of 8K more votes than the Democrat** who ran for the seat four years earlier, and voters cast 39% more straight-party Democratic votes than in 2012. When we last explored straight-party voting in HD115, we noted that the district “remain[s] friendly to Republican candidates despite recent inroads made by Democrats. Republicans still won the district, but the gap has narrowed greatly, at least in presidential election years.

Overall, single-punch, straight-party voters accounted for 63% of all ballots cast in HD115 last year, which is consistent with recent years. The chart below shows the estimated number of single-punch, straight-party votes cast in the district’s current precincts going back to 2000.

Democrats have been gaining ground – or at least treading water – consistently since 2000, when Republican candidates had a greater than 11K-vote advantage in straight-party voting. The number of Republican straight-party votes cast in a presidential year peaked in 2004 and has fallen each of the three presidential elections since. Roughly the same number of people cast straight-party Republican votes in 2016 as in 2000.

The number of straight-party Democratic votes has increased in each cyclical election since 2000/2002 with the exception of a slight dip in 2012 from 2008. In 2016, 183% more people case straight-party Democratic votes than in 2000.

Republicans’ high-water mark for a gubernatorial year was in 2010, but they have maintained a significant margin over the Democrats in gubernatorial years. The gap has closed, but it was still around 5K in 2014. In the last four gubernatorial election cycles, Republican straight-party turnout has fallen an average of 36% from the previous presidential year, while Democratic turnout has fallen an average of 47%.

If those trends hold, Rinaldi would have some level of straight-party voting advantage in 2018. The table below shows the estimated straight-party vote advantage under a variety of scenarios of changes in turnout – all declines – from the 2016 totals based on the last four gubernatorial election cycles.

[supsystic-tables id='5']

Scenarios are based upon the highest, average and lowest declines in the last four gubernatorial elections relative to the preceding presidential election, and the midpoints between those values, for each party. For example, if you assume that the decline in Republican straight-party voting will be the average of the last four gubernatorial elections, and the Democratic decline will be midway between the average and the lowest for those elections, then the resulting 2018 Democratic advantage would be 68 votes, a dead heat. If both parties saw an average decline in turnout from 2016, then the resulting 2018 Republican advantage would be 1,146 votes.

Rinaldi won a majority of full-ballot voters in both of his general election races so far. In 2014, his margin among full-ballot voters was considerably smaller than in 2016, but he had a nearly 5K-vote advantage in straight-party voting, giving him a much more comfortable victory than last year.

Ocker has confirmed she is running again in 2018.

It’s also worth noting that a Libertarian candidate received 999 votes (811 from full-ballot voters) in 2014, which likely affected Rinaldi’s total more than his Democratic opponent’s. No one ran as a Libertarian in 2016. The presence of one could have made that race much closer. Democrats have won several races in Dallas Co. (and elsewhere) in the last decade with less than 50% of the vote in part because of the presence of Libertarian candidates.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

* A Republican has been elected to represent most of the geography that is now HD115 since 1972, when District 33B occupied the northwestern corner of the county. From 1983 until 2001, much of current HD115 was HD99.

  • Al Korioth (R-Dallas), 1973-1977
  • Bill Blanton (R-Carrllton), 1977-1987
  • Kenny Marchant (R-Carrollton), 1987-2003
  • Jim Jackson (R-Carrollton), 2003-2013
  • Bennett Ratliff (R-Coppell), 2013-2015
  • Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving), 2015-present

The last Democrat to represent this portion of Dallas Co. was Rep. Jack Blanton (D-Carrollton), who was elected to his third and final term in 1970.

** HD115 was slightly redrawn in 2013, so several precincts currently in the district were part of HD103 in 2012. For purposes of this analysis, we added the votes received by Rep. Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas) to the total received by HD115 nominee Mary Clare Fabishak and deducted votes Fabishak received from precincts that are no longer part of HD115.

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How to Choose the Best Legislative Tracking Software for Your Organization
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In today’s fast-paced policy environment, staying informed is a constant challenge. Bills, hearings, and regulatory updates move quickly across jurisdictions, creating risks for organizations that rely on timely information, including the risk of missing important information when relying on manual processes. Choosing the best legislative tracking software is one of the most effective ways to manage legislative and regulatory tracking efficiently, minimize missed opportunities, and strengthen decision-making.

This article walks you through how to evaluate legislative and regulatory tools, compare coverage and capabilities, and understand which features help government affairs professionals and public affairs teams stay informed and a step ahead of rapid change. You’ll learn how to assess software platforms, review vendor performance, and apply a clear framework to guide your organization’s choice.

If you’re exploring modern solutions for policy monitoring, visit the best legislative tracking software to see how advanced systems help professionals track activity and analyze critical information across multiple jurisdictions.

Why Legislative Tracking Software Matters

Every legislative session brings thousands of new bills and hearings across the federal government, state legislatures, and local governments. For government affairs teams and law firms that must monitor state legislation or track regulations, the pace of change can be overwhelming.

Without digital platforms, staff may spend hours each day manually searching databases, reading committee reports, and updating spreadsheets. That process isn’t just inefficient—it’s risky. Missing one act or amendment could affect compliance, advocacy strategy, or even public reputation. Relying on manual tracking increases the chance of overlooking important details in legislative information, which can lead to missing critical updates or changes.

The Challenge of Volume and Velocity

  • Legislative and regulatory tracking spans bills, hearings, amendments, and regulations that appear daily.
  • Strategic decisions depend on access to verified data and real-time alerts.
  • Regulatory developments from government agencies can impact clients and advocacy groups instantly.

The Payoff

Automated tracking saves time, reduces human error, and delivers actionable insights faster. Teams can filter results, share updates, and focus their attention where it matters most—on influencing policy and shaping outcomes.

Key Features and Capabilities to Look For

Choosing the right tracking platform starts with understanding what differentiates effective tools from simple alert systems. Below are core features to evaluate before purchasing or implementing any solution.

Coverage Across Jurisdictions

The best systems provide a broad jurisdictional reach—from federal legislation to state legislative hearings and local government acts. Before committing, confirm whether the platform includes:

  • Federal and state legislation: Bills, amendments, regulations, hearings, and newly introduced bills, with Congress as a key source for federal legislative tracking.
  • Regulatory activity: Notices from agencies and committees.
  • Comprehensive data sources: Congressional records, local archives, and state portals.

Understanding the dynamic nature of Capitol Hill is crucial, as legislative activity and staff turnover at the federal level can significantly impact advocacy strategies and tracking efforts.

If your team must monitor state legislation, check that the vendor’s coverage includes smaller states and municipalities that frequently pass niche regulations.

Real Time Alerts and Notifications

Fast updates are critical for professionals who manage compliance or advocacy campaigns. Strong systems offer:

  • Instant email alerts for bill introductions, amendments, or new hearings.
  • Custom filters for topics, sponsors, committees, or jurisdictions.
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With real-time alerts, government affairs professionals and policy experts can respond before deadlines pass—ensuring that organizations stay ahead and fully informed.

Analytics, Reporting, and Insight Generation

Good tracking isn’t just about collecting raw data. It’s about turning that data into useful analysis. A well-built platform helps users:

  • Create trend dashboards showing activity by topic, legislator, or region.
  • Generate reports to brief clients, executives, or advocacy groups.
  • Use artificial intelligence to compare bills, predict movement, or analyze outcomes.
  • Access historical data for longitudinal analysis.

By combining analytics with visualization tools, organizations gain the context needed to make strategic decisions quickly.

Artificial Intelligence in Legislative Tracking

Artificial intelligence transforms how government affairs professionals and government relations teams approach legislative tracking. By harnessing AI, organizations can analyze massive volumes of legislative and regulatory data in real time, ensuring that no critical bill or regulation goes unnoticed. AI-powered tools can automatically identify and prioritize bills that align with an organization’s advocacy goals, generate personalized bill summaries, and even predict the likelihood of legislative movement—all with minimal manual intervention.

For government relations professionals, this means less time spent sifting through raw data and more time focusing on strategy, stakeholder engagement, and influencing policy outcomes. AI-driven platforms can scan every legislative chamber, flagging new bills and regulations that matter most to your organization. These actionable insights empower teams to stay ahead of policy developments, respond quickly to emerging issues, and confidently make strategic decisions. As artificial intelligence continues to evolve, it will play an increasingly vital role in helping professionals track legislation, analyze regulatory trends, and drive effective advocacy across all levels of government.

Ease of Use and Vendor Support

Complex systems often fail because users find them hard to operate. When evaluating tracking software, consider:

  • Intuitive search functions and clear navigation.
  • Vendor training, documentation, and help-desk responsiveness.
  • Implementation timelines and onboarding resources.
  • Integration options with CRM, compliance, or reporting platforms.

The easier the interface, the more likely professionals across departments—legal, advocacy, and communications—will actually use it.

Security and Data Protection

When it comes to legislative tracking, security and data protection are non-negotiable for government affairs professionals and organizations. The sensitive nature of legislative and regulatory data—combined with the need for accurate, up-to-date information—means that robust security measures are essential. Leading legislative tracking platforms employ advanced encryption, secure servers, and strict access controls to ensure that only authorized users can access critical information.

In addition, reputable platforms adhere to industry best practices and compliance standards, safeguarding client data from unauthorized access or breaches. This commitment to security allows government relations professionals to focus on their core strategy and advocacy efforts, knowing that their data is protected at every step. By selecting a platform with proven security protocols, organizations can confidently manage their legislative tracking activities and maintain the trust of stakeholders, clients, and team members.

Integration with Other Tools

For government affairs professionals, efficiency and collaboration are key to successful advocacy. That’s why seamless integration between legislative tracking platforms and other essential tools—such as CRM systems, email clients, and social media monitoring software—is so valuable. Integrated platforms enable government relations professionals to track bills, monitor legislator interactions, and analyze advocacy campaigns all in one place, reducing manual data entry and streamlining workflows.

By connecting legislative tracking with CRM systems, organizations can maintain a comprehensive record of stakeholder engagement, track the progress of key bills, and measure the impact of their advocacy efforts. Integration with communication tools also ensures that teams can quickly share updates, assign tasks, and coordinate responses to legislative developments. Ultimately, these integrations help government affairs teams stay ahead of policy changes, maximize efficiency, and deliver more effective results for their organizations and clients.

Cost, Scalability, and ROI

Pricing varies widely across platforms. Some charge by user, others by jurisdiction. Evaluate:

  • Scalability: Can you expand access as new teams join?
  • Hidden costs: Extra fees for integrations or data exports.
  • ROI: Measure efficiency gains, reduced research hours, and improved regulatory compliance.

The right investment pays for itself through faster tracking, stronger insight, and better policy outcomes.

Building Your Decision-Making Checklist

A structured checklist helps teams evaluate multiple vendors objectively. Consider the following steps:

  1. Define scope: Identify which government levels—federal, state, local—your organization must monitor.
  2. Map stakeholders: Determine which departments, clients, professionals, or legislators need access to legislative tracking information.
  3. Create a scoring system: Rate vendors on coverage, alerts, analytics, ease of use, and cost.
  4. Request demos: Ask vendors to show how their tools track legislation and deliver reports.
  5. Review accuracy: Compare automated alerts to official legislative portals to confirm reliability.
  6. Pilot the system: Run a short test during a legislative session to evaluate performance.

This structured review allows government relations professionals and policy experts to make choices based on measurable evidence, not sales claims.

Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them

Even sophisticated organizations can stumble during implementation. Watch for these frequent errors:

  • Assuming full coverage: Some systems exclude local governments or agency regulations. This can result in missing important government actions, leaving you unaware of key legislative or regulatory developments.
  • Overloading users: Too many irrelevant alerts lead to fatigue.
  • Ignoring integration: Platforms that don’t connect to existing tools reduce efficiency.
  • Underestimating training: Teams may resist new systems without clear onboarding.
  • Skipping metrics: Without KPIs, you can’t analyze ROI or improvement.

Avoiding these issues keeps your strategy grounded in real performance data.

Implementation Best Practices and Maximizing Value

Rolling out a new tracking platform works best when everyone understands the process. Follow these steps:

  • Stakeholder alignment: Engage government affairs, legal, and communications teams early.
  • Define taxonomy: Standardize issue tags, committees, and jurisdiction names.
  • Workflow mapping: Assign ownership for monitoring, escalation, and communication.
  • Training: Offer live sessions and short guides to reinforce adoption.
  • Continuous review: Revisit settings each quarter to refine alerts and search filters.

As policy cycles shift, ongoing optimization ensures that your system remains accurate, relevant, and responsive to regulatory developments.

For additional insight on how legislative and regulatory tools operate, review the NCSL’s bill tracking overview, which explains how professionals track state legislation effectively.

Future of Legislative Tracking

The future of legislative tracking is bright, with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics reshaping how government affairs professionals and organizations monitor and influence policy. As the demand for real-time, data-driven insights grows, legislative tracking tools will become even more sophisticated—offering predictive analytics, automated reporting, and deeper integration with other advocacy platforms.

We can expect to see greater adoption of cloud-based solutions, enhanced security features, and more intuitive user interfaces that make it easier for government relations professionals to access and analyze critical information. The integration of legislative tracking with CRM, communication, and analytics tools will provide a unified view of advocacy efforts, enabling teams to coordinate strategy and engage stakeholders more effectively.

As the policy landscape evolves, staying ahead of legislative and regulatory developments will be essential for organizations seeking to influence legislation and achieve their advocacy goals. By embracing the latest technologies and innovations, government affairs professionals can ensure they remain agile, informed, and ready to drive meaningful impact in an ever-changing environment.

Texas Political Spotlight
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Welcome back, friends

Texas voters approved one of the largest property tax relief packages in state history on Tuesday, raising the homestead exemption to $140,000 and granting new tax breaks for seniors, people with disabilities, and small businesses. In Austin, residents rejected Proposition Q, a plan to fund public safety, homelessness programs, and city facility initiatives through a property tax hike, forcing city leaders to rework the budget and brace for service cuts. Meanwhile, Bexar County voters narrowly passed Propositions A and B, greenlighting up to $311 million in tourism-funded support for a new downtown Spurs arena and upgrades to the Freeman Coliseum grounds.

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Texas Political Spotlight
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Welcome back friends,

Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most influential and controversial figures in modern American politics, has died at 84, remembered by former President George W. Bush as a “patriot” whose intellect and conviction shaped decades of U.S. policy. In Texas, the Education Agency announced a sweeping takeover of Fort Worth ISD, the state’s second-largest intervention, citing years of academic underperformance and plans to install new local managers. And in Washington, a United Airlines flight was evacuated after a bomb threat, prompting an FBI investigation that later found no explosives, allowing operations to resume safely.

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