We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. Our election data for each district goes back to 2002.
These are our final ratings barring significant last-minute movement in multiple respected polls.
President
Toss Up: Trump 49.9%, Biden 49.2%
Statewide Offices
One Railroad Commissioner, four Supreme Court justices and three judges of the Court of Criminal Appeals are up for election in 2020.
Current makeup of statewide offices is: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats
Projected makeup in 2021: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats
Texas Senate
Sixteen members of the Texas Senate are up for election in 2020. All 31 will be up for election in 2022 after redistricting.
Current makeup of the Texas Senate: 19 Republicans, 11 Democrats with one vacancy (SD14, safe Democrat).
Projected makeup in 2021: 18 Republicans, 13 Democrats
Safe Republicans (6): SD1 (Hughes), SD4 (Creighton), SD18 (Kolkhorst), SD22 (Birdwell), SD24 (Buckingham), SD28 (Perry). Republicans not on the ballot in 2020 (10): SD2 (Hall), SD3 (Nichols), SD5 (Schwertner), SD7 (Bettencourt), SD8 (Paxton), SD9 (Hancock), SD17 (Huffman), SD25 (Campbell), SD30 (Fallon), SD31 (Seliger)
Safe Democrats (5): SD6 (Alvarado), SD13 (Miles), SD26 (Menendez), SD27 (Lucio), SD29 open. Democrats not on the ballot in 2020 (5): SD10 (Powell), SD14 open (D), SD15 (Whitmire), SD16 (Johnson), SD23 (West)
Texas House of Representatives
All 150 members of the Texas House of Representatives are up for election in 2020.
Current makeup of the Texas House: 83 Republicans, 67 Democrats.
Projected makeup in 2021: 77 Democrats, 73 Republicans
Safe Republicans (49): HD1 (VanDeaver), HD2 open, HD3 (C. Bell), HD4 (K. Bell), HD5 (Hefner), HD6 (Schaefer), HD7 (Dean), HD8 (Harris), HD9 (Paddie), HD10 open, HD11 (Clardy), HD12 (Kacal), HD13 (Leman), HD15 (Toth), HD16 (Metcalf), HD18 (Bailes), HD19 (White), HD20 (Wilson), HD21 (Phelan), HD24 (G. Bonnen), HD25 open, HD30 (Morrison), HD43 (Lozano)*, HD44 (Kuempel), HD53 (Murr), HD55 (Shine), HD56 (Anderson), HD57 (Ashby), HD58 (Burns), HD59 open, HD60 open, HD61 (P. King), HD62 (Smith), HD63 (Parker), HD68 (Springer), HD69 (Frank), HD71 (Lambert), HD72 (Darby), HD73 (Biedermann), HD81 (Landgraf), HD82 (Craddick), HD83 (Burrows), HD86 (Smithee), HD87 (Price), HD88 (K. King), HD98 (Capriglione), HD99 (Geren)*, HD127 (Huberty)*, HD128 (Cain), HD130 (Oliverson)
Safe Democrats (48): HD22 (Deshotel), HD27 (Reynolds), HD35 (Longoria)*, HD36 (Munoz), HD37 (Dominguez)*, HD38 (Lucio)*, HD39 (Martinez), HD40 (Canales), HD42 (Raymond), HD46 (Cole), HD48 (Howard), HD49 (Hinojosa), HD50 (Israel), HD51 (Rodriguez), HD75 (M. Gonzalez), HD76 open, HD77 (Ortega), HD78 (Moody), HD79 (Fierro), HD80 (T. King)*, HD90 (Romero), HD95 (Collier), HD100 open, HD101 (C. Turner), HD103 (Anchia), HD104 (J. Gonzalez), HD109 (Sherman), HD110 (Y. Davis), HD111 (Rose), HD116 (Martinez Fischer), HD119 open, HD120 (Gervin Hawkins), HD123 (Bernal), HD124 (Minjarez), HD125 (Lopez), HD131 (Allen), HD137 (Wu), HD139 (Ja. Johnson), HD140 (Walle), HD141 (S. Thompson), HD142 (Dutton), HD143 (Hernandez), HD144 (Perez), HD145 (Morales), HD146 (Thierry), HD147 (Coleman), HD148 open, HD149 (Vo)
* Would be rated Likely if facing a major-party opponent.
Texas Congressional Delegation
All 36 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) are up for election in 2020.
Current makeup of the Texas Congressional delegation: 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats with 1 vacancy (CD4, safe Republican) and 2 Republican U.S. Senators.
Projected makeup in 2021: 18 Republicans, 18 Democrats with 2 Republican U.S. Senators
Safe Republicans (9): CD1 (Gohmert), CD4 open, CD8 (Brady), CD11 open, CD12 (Granger), CD13 open, CD19 (Arrington), CD27 (Cloud), CD36 (Babin). U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is not up for re-election until 2024.
Safe Democrats (9): CD9 (Green), CD16 (Escobar), CD18 (Jackson Lee), CD20 (Castro), CD28 (Cuellar), CD29 (Garcia), CD30 (Johnson), CD33 (Veasey), CD35 (Doggett)
Note: We are no longer including or covering candidates for the State Board of Education.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
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