The Reddening of the Hispanic Vote
by Jeff Blaylock
Boyz II Men had the No. 1 song, and Tim Allen’s The Santa Clause was No. 1 at the box office. As AOL was cheerfully announced we had mail, Zip Disks began freeing us from the tyranny of floppies. The Dallas Cowboys were Super Bowl champions.
That was the most recent time Texas voters elected Democrats to statewide offices. Since then, the last 167 candidates elected statewide in Texas have been Republicans, including the eight who won on Tuesday. The voters of every other state have elected at least one Democrat statewide since Texas last did it, including states much redder than Texas is today.
Thirty years of losing … and counting. There have been a few “almosts” like John Sharp and Paul Hobby in 1998, the Barack Obama wave of 2008 and Beto O’Rourke six years ago. There was no “almost” about this year’s election. Tuesday’s results reinforced not only the gap between the two parties but also the rapid erosion of the Democratic brand among Hispanic and Latino voters.
Exit polling indicates Hispanic/Latino voters favored former President Trump over Vice President Harris, 55%-44%, but that was not the most surprising data point. More revelatory is realizing Hispanic/Latino men (64%-35%, +29%) voted for Trump at a rate much closer to White men (68%-29%, +39%) than Hispanic/Latino women (43%-55%, minus-12%). Trump’s campaign was especially aimed at men, and it appears that strategy has worked and continues to work.
But we don’t need exit polling to reveal the increasing success of Republican candidates among Hispanic/Latino voters. We just need to look at the map.
The reddening of South and West Texas accelerated since Trump’s first election in 2016. Trump improved his performance in every one of these counties, many of them by more than 10 points – 14 of them by more than 20 points. His 52.5% in Cameron Co. is 20.5 percentage points higher than his 32.0% in 2016. In Hidalgo Co., Trump received 51.0% percent of the vote, up 23.0 points from 2016. In Webb Co., Trump won with 50.7% of the vote, up 28.1 points from his first run for president.
His vote share rose 39% in Starr Co., 38% in Maverick Co., 28% in Zapata, 25% in Jim Hogg Co., 22% in Zavala Co., 21% in Brooks and Willacy counties and almost 20% in Val Verde Co. Overall, he improved his performance among the dozen border counties by 20.9 percentage points over 2016, carrying all but two of them. In 2016, he won five of them.
Whatever advantage Democrats had historically relied upon in South Texas is largely gone. Clinton’s nearly 240,000 net vote advantage from border counties in 2016 has shrunk to just over 11,000 votes. Among all the counties shown on the map, a net margin of over 300,000 votes for Democrats has shrunk to fewer than 20,000 votes.
We have not explored precinct-level data yet, but I suspect Trump gained support among Hispanics and Latinos in the urban and counties that have lately been Democratic strongholds. In 2020, President Biden received more than 923,000 net votes in Dallas, Harris, Travis and Bexar counties combined. Trump cut that margin to around 567,000 net votes this year, a shift of more than 350,000 votes.
Put together, these are staggering losses of net votes coming from the only areas Democrats have performed well in recent elections. The rest of the state is a rural red wall.
Trump’s margin in counties with fewer than 20,000 registered voters almost completely offset Harris’s advantage in counties with at least 500,000 registered voters. The counties in between are solidly red. Harris won exactly one county with between 20,000 and 500,000 registered voters: Hays.
Trump received at least 80% of the vote in 129 of the state’s 254 counties. Harris had single-digit support in two dozen counties. Trump’s worst performance was 29.4% in Travis Co. Harris cleared that figure in just over 50 counties. Trump’s advantage in counties with fewer than 50,000 registered voters exceeded 900,000 net votes. Add the counties with between 50,000 and 100,000 registered voters, and the Republican’s advantage rose to 1.3 million votes. As of this writing, that’s more than the total number of votes cast for any candidate in at least 20 different states.
We have focused this analysis on the presidential race. Keep in mind that Trump slightly under-performed other Republican statewide candidates, as he has in every election. The statewide judicial candidates averaged 58%, a little over a point and a half above Trump.
There are only three methods to increase a political party’s share of the vote: convert existing voters from the other party, win crossover votes for specific candidates and attract new voters. Republicans have the edge in the first method as evidenced by the map above. Crossover voting has become increasingly rare, at least at the statewide level. Roughly 1 out of every 55 voters selected Allred and otherwise mostly if not entirely Republican candidates. This is not surprising. It’s been six years since single-punch, straight-party voting was an option, but its popularity had grown until it was being used by seven out of every 10 voters.
That leaves new voters, a group that historically votes at much lower rates than recent voters. New voters fall into four basic buckets: Texans who haven’t registered to vote, Texans who are registered but haven’t voted, new Texans who recently moved into the state and young adult Texans turning 18.
Starting with the last group, voters under age 24 favored Trump, 54%-43%, according to exit polling. At least for now, that option is not particularly great for Democrats.
The potential impact of the other three groups is harder to tease out, largely because many more of them don’t vote than do. Those that have voted left behind some breadcrumbs. According to the exit poll, the 9% of voters who answered yes to “Is this the first year you have ever voted?” went to Trump, 80%-19%. According to Derek Ryan’s analysis of primary voting, around 30,000 voters with “no voting history” cast ballots early in this year’s Republican primary compared to around 18,000 in the Democratic primary. So new voters seem to be more in the Republican column, on balance, at least for now.
That leaves non-voters, and there are a lot of them. More than 7 million registered voters did not cast a ballot in this year’s presidential election. Another 1.5 million or so Texans who are eligible to vote were not registered in time to vote in last week’s election.
Sadly, neither of these figures is new or unusual. At least 5 million registered voters did not vote in each even-year general election since 1998. At least 1.5 million eligible Texans were not registered to vote in each even-year general election since 2010 (In other words, since the Obama blue wave of 2008).
Getting non-voters to the polls has historically been quite a challenge. Frequent voters tend to vote. Non-voters tend not to vote. #analysis
Going into the 2020 election, there were almost 5 million Texans who had voted in at least one of the last four general election but no primary elections, according to Derek Ryan. More than 2 million of them didn’t vote in 2020. There were even more registered voters with no recent voting history whatsoever (This would include newly registered voters.). More than 4 million of them didn’t vote in 2020.
Coming into 2024, these two groups of sporadic voters and non-voting registrants accounted for more around two thirds of Texans registered to vote in last week’s election. We do not have final figures on their participation, but it is unlikely to be very different from most past years. In other words, much lower than frequent voters.
If, on balance, new voters are trending Republican, converted voters are turning Republican, non-voters are hard to motivate, and everyone else was already favoring Republicans, then there is very little fertile ground left aside from unregistered but eligible Texans, a group that is surely unlikely to vote in huge enough numbers even if they were registered.
That’s not to say it is impossible. In 2026, Democratic candidates will be running against the Trump White House rather than away from Biden. For Democratic candidates, 2018 was undoubtedly a better year than 2016. It wasn’t enough, but it was better. No one truly knows what the economy will be like in two years or how world events may shape voters’ opinions. No one can predict if voters might sour on Republicans’ more conservative agenda sure to be enacted this session. Inspirational candidates may arise.
The road, already long traveled, remains long and difficult. With a broken brand and a lack of avenues to win over voters, Democrats are poised to continue their statewide losing streak.
Jeff Blaylock is the founder of TXElects Legacy & Senior Editor of TXLege News. You can follow Jeff on X and LinkedIn.
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Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
Texas is facing a pivotal legal test over its election system as Republicans seek to end open primaries, a move that supporters frame as protecting party autonomy and critics warn could create new barriers to voter participation. At the same time, federal officials are considering a land exchange that would allow SpaceX to expand its South Texas launch site, renewing debate over how to balance economic growth with the preservation of sensitive wildlife habitat along the Gulf Coast. Lastly, a federal judge has blocked a new Texas law regulating children’s access to app stores, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty over how far states can go in policing online safety without infringing on constitutional rights.
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#44 - Hope Osborn: Building Community for Women in Texas Politics with Pink Granite
Welcome to Episode #44 of Bills & Business. In this episode, Laura Carr, Co-Founder of USLege, sits down with Hope Osborn, Co-Founder of The Pink Granite Foundation.
Hope brings more than a decade of experience across the Texas Capitol, having worked in both chambers, both parties, and in the advocacy world. She shares the story behind The Pink Granite Foundation and how it has grown into a nonpartisan force for uplifting, connecting, and supporting women in Texas politics. From its grassroots beginnings to the impact of the 2025 Pink Granite Party, Hope provides an inside look at how the organization strengthens the political ecosystem.
Laura and Hope explore the nonprofit’s mentorship programs, year-round community-building efforts, and the unique pressures women face working under the dome. Hope offers insight into why women’s leadership in politics matters, how to break down persistent barriers, and what the future looks like for the next generation of female leaders in Texas policymaking.
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How to Choose the Right Legislative Bill Tracking Software for Your Organization
Legislative bill tracking software now sits at the center of how modern organizations monitor public policy.
With fast-moving legislation across states and at the federal level, even a single missed update can derail compliance, strategy, and stakeholder communication.
For government affairs, public affairs professionals, and policy professionals, the challenge is no longer finding information.
The real challenge is staying up to date, sorting through massive amounts of data, and acting fast enough to stay ahead of regulatory developments.
Organizations that still rely on manual tracking often miss hearing schedules, committee assignments, and vote movement during an active legislative session.
Those delays lead to rushed analysis, weak talking points, and reduced control over regulatory strategy.
This guide explains how modern legislative and regulatory tracking works, what features matter most, and how to evaluate legislative bill tracking software with confidence.
It also outlines how the right tools help organizations save time, stay informed, and work smarter with fewer resources.
What a Legislative Tracking Platform Actually Does
A legislative tracking platform collects bills, executive orders, and regulatory updates from Congress and state agencies.
It organizes full text, status, hearing schedules, and vote outcomes into a searchable structure.
Instead of searching dozens of sites, users access critical information in a single workspace.
This creates comprehensive coverage across jurisdictions and timeline stages.
Manual Monitoring vs Automated Systems
Manual tracking depends on email newsletters, website checks, spreadsheets, and delayed reports.
Automated tracking legislation systems rely on structured data feeds, continuous search processing, and AI-powered tagging.
This shift allows teams to track bills in real time while reducing reporting lag.
Who Relies on Legislative and Regulatory Tracking Every Day
Government Affairs Teams
Government affairs teams track legislation to advise internal leadership and shape outreach strategy.
They monitor committee hearings, regulatory changes, and voting calendars to anticipate outcomes.
Government Affairs Professionals
Government affairs professionals depend on real-time alerts to prepare briefings, manage stakeholder communication, and coordinate advocacy activity.
Public Affairs Professionals
Public affairs professionals use legislative tracking to stay informed on pending legislation that affects public positioning.
They use alerts, bill summaries, and reports to guide messaging and response timing.
Policy Professionals
Policy professionals analyze regulatory and legislative movement for forecasting and risk modeling.
Core Functions Every System Must Deliver
Real Time Alerts and Notifications
Real-time alerts ensure that no major event is missed.
Users receive status change alerts, hearing alerts, committee movement alerts, and vote alerts.
Many systems also deliver real-time legislative alerts and real-time notifications to multiple team members at once.
Email alerts remain a core communication channel.
Search and Filtering Tools
Strong search features allow users to search by keyword, bill number, sponsor, topic, and date.
Advanced filters allow professionals to track across Congress, agencies, and jurisdictions without manual sorting.
Bill Summaries and Full Text Access
Clear bill summaries help professionals review large volumes of legislation quickly.
Full text access supports detailed analysis when a deeper review is required.
Tracking Across the Full Legislative Process
The legislative process unfolds across many stages.
A strong tracking system follows every phase without delay.
Stages include introduction, committee hearing, committee vote, floor vote, reconciliation, and enactment.
Tracking each stage allows organizations to act with speed and precision.
Why Organizations Struggle Without Proper Tracking
Without reliable legislative tracking, organizations often miss key vote windows and fall behind on regulatory changes.
They lose early access to hearing schedules and waste time on manual legislative research.
Manual tracking also weakens stakeholder engagement and limits the ability to anticipate outcomes.
How AI-Powered Tracking Improves Speed and Accuracy
AI-powered systems classify bills by topic, industry, and risk level.
They reduce noise while increasing signal clarity.
Key AI-powered functions include automated tagging, predictive analysis, sentiment scoring, and impact forecasting.
This allows teams to anticipate policy shifts instead of reacting after passage.
Staying Ahead in Fast-Moving Legislative Environments
Fast-moving legislation often changes direction within days.
Organizations that stay ahead rely on continuous data intake and structured alerts.
To stay ahead consistently, teams must track daily activity, review bill movement, monitor committee assignments, and track hearing schedules.
Teams that do not stay ahead often miss early influence windows.
Jurisdictional Scope and Data Integrity
Federal Level Coverage
Federal-level tracking focuses on Congress, agencies, and executive orders.
These updates guide national strategy and compliance planning.
State and Local Monitoring
State and municipal legislation often moves faster than federal legislation.
Multi-jurisdiction tracking legislation tools allow organizations to track overlapping regulatory exposure while staying fully up to date.
The Role of Data in Modern Bill Monitoring
Data drives every element of tracking software.
It supports alerts, reports, dashboards, and compliance workflows.
Reliable data strengthens legislative analysis, regulatory monitoring, stakeholder analysis, and long-term strategy planning.
Reports, Analysis, and Action Planning
Strong report functions turn raw data into usable insights.
Reports guide leadership decisions at every level of the organization.
Common reports include daily legislative summaries, weekly regulatory reports, stakeholder briefings, and executive updates.
Advanced analysis allows teams to compare date ranges, sponsors, committees, and historical vote behavior.
Supporting Advocacy and Government Relations
Advocacy relies on early awareness and quick response.
Government relations teams depend on tracking to coordinate outreach tools, stakeholder engagement, and talking points.
Legislative tracking strengthens government relations by improving access to bill summaries, hearing schedules, and pending legislation updates.
Real Time Workflow Management
Real-time alerts flow into shared team workflows.
Every alert triggers review, analysis, and response.
Real-time notifications help assign internal owners, trigger review cycles, support rapid response, and prevent missed deadlines.
This structure allows the organization to maintain control under pressure.
Managing Regulatory Risk Through Continuous Monitoring
Regulatory risk increases when organizations track sporadically.
Continuous regulatory tracking reduces exposure by keeping leadership informed of regulatory changes.
Regulatory monitoring supports compliance alignment, internal controls, and audit readiness.
Integration With Internal Systems
Modern tracking software integrates with CRM systems, internal dashboards, compliance platforms, and reporting tools.
This improves access to legislative and regulatory data across the organization while reducing manual data entry.
Search, Review, and Control Functions
Search tools help teams locate relevant bills quickly.
Review workflows to ensure accuracy and relevance.
Control layers protect access across departments.
Key Evaluation Criteria for Selecting a Platform
Usability for Professionals
Professionals require intuitive dashboards, fast search, clear alerts, and low learning curves.
Usability directly impacts adoption and performance.
Customization for Each Organization
Every organization tracks different legislation.
Customization allows industry-specific focus, regional tracking, alert priorities, and tailored reports.
Cost, Spend, and Resource Allocation
Pricing affects total spend.
Automation reduces manual effort and helps teams save time while operating with less time investment.
Team Collaboration and Communication
Tracking systems support collaboration across the full team.
Shared alerts, shared reports, and shared review processes improve transparency and alignment.
Stakeholder Management and Client Communication
Stakeholders expect timely updates.
Clients rely on clear reports to guide compliance and planning.
Tracking platforms support stakeholder trust, client communication, and strategic confidence.
Avoiding Missed Opportunities and Compliance Failures
Organizations without structured tracking often miss hearings, deadlines, amendments, and engagement windows.
Every missed update increases both legal and operational risk.
Staying Informed in High-Volume Legislative Cycles
High-volume legislative sessions demand continuous monitoring.
To stay informed, teams rely on automated alerts, daily reports, and real-time legislative alerts.
Strategic Use of Legislative and Regulatory Tracking
Legislative and regulatory tracking supports long-term policy strategy, compliance planning, advocacy positioning, and organizational risk management.
Using Tracking to Anticipate Policy Shifts
Anticipation depends on trend analysis, sponsor behavior review, historical vote patterns, and committee movement tracking.
These insights help organizations remain one step ahead.
Managing High Bill Volume With Limited Resources
Congress and state legislatures introduce thousands of bills each year.
Tracking software allows organizations to manage this volume with fewer resources and stronger control.
Accuracy, Speed, and Critical Information Flow
Accuracy ensures trust in decisions.
Speed ensures timely action.
Critical information must flow without interruption to all stakeholders.
Supporting Long-Term Strategy With Continuous Data
Continuous data monitoring aligns regulatory planning with business strategy.
It prevents reactive behavior and supports proactive positioning.
Future Direction of Legislative and Regulatory Monitoring
The future is driven by deeper AI-powered analytics, faster real-time alerts, broader data interoperability, and stronger predictive analysis.
These advances will further improve organizational readiness.
Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
Texas is facing a pivotal legal test over its election system as Republicans seek to end open primaries, a move that supporters frame as protecting party autonomy and critics warn could create new barriers to voter participation. At the same time, federal officials are considering a land exchange that would allow SpaceX to expand its South Texas launch site, renewing debate over how to balance economic growth with the preservation of sensitive wildlife habitat along the Gulf Coast. Lastly, a federal judge has blocked a new Texas law regulating children’s access to app stores, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty over how far states can go in policing online safety without infringing on constitutional rights.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
Michael and Susan Dell’s unprecedented $6.25 billion pledge to expand federal “Trump Accounts” aims to boost long-term savings for 25 million American children. In Lubbock, Texas Tech’s new classroom restrictions on race, gender identity, and sexuality have ignited an immediate clash over academic freedom and curriculum control. And in Northeast Texas, Rep. Gary VanDeaver’s decision not to seek reelection opens a pivotal Republican primary.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
Texas voters approved one of the largest property tax relief packages in state history on Tuesday, raising the homestead exemption to $140,000 and granting new tax breaks for seniors, people with disabilities, and small businesses. In Austin, residents rejected Proposition Q, a plan to fund public safety, homelessness programs, and city facility initiatives through a property tax hike, forcing city leaders to rework the budget and brace for service cuts. Meanwhile, Bexar County voters narrowly passed Propositions A and B, greenlighting up to $311 million in tourism-funded support for a new downtown Spurs arena and upgrades to the Freeman Coliseum grounds.
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