Poll Shows Increased Enthusiasm After Harris Nomination & Texas Court Strikes Down Election Code Provision
By Jeff Blaylock - Founder & Senior Editor
September, 13, 2024
Today we are covering:
Poll Shows Increased Enthusiasm After Harris Nomination
A new UT/Texas Politics Project poll shows former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 49%-44% in Texas, with Democratic voter enthusiasm surging since Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee, though likely not enough to overcome Trump's advantage.
Texas Court Strikes Down Election Code Provision
The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals struck down Section 255.004(b) of the Election Code, ruling it unconstitutional for restricting political speech, potentially paving the way for more misleading campaign ads ahead of the general election.
Poll Shows Increased Enthusiasm After Harris Nomination
As expected, the replacement of President Biden as the Democratic nominee with Vice President Kamala Harris has injected new life into the presidential race in Texas, but not enough to deny former President Trump the state's 40 electoral votes. Trump leads Harris 49%-44%, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released earlier this week. Trump led Biden 46%-39% in the June poll.
The biggest change aside from the Democratic nominee is the impact of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s departure from the race. In June, 12% of respondents said they would vote for another named candidate, with Kennedy securing 8%. Now, the percentage of respondents who said they would vote for another named candidate dropped to 2%.
Harris's entry into the race has had measurable upward impacts on enthusiasm about voting among groups more inclined to support the Democratic nominee or oppose the Republican one. Harris's supporters show increased attachment, with 70% wanting her to be elected president compared to 50% in June, while Trump's supporters have remained more firmly attached to their candidate, now at 80% compared to 74% in June.
A slightly higher percentage of Democrats (52%) are now "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in November than Republicans (49%), a reversal from June when Republicans (55%) showed higher enthusiasm compared to Democrats (39%).
Key Democratic groups showing rising enthusiasm include:
- Democrats 52%, up from 39%
- Strong Democrats 63%, up from 50%
- Weak Democrats 36%, up from 21%
- Lean Democrats 39%, up from 31%
- Women 46%, up from 40%
- Black voters 44%, up from 29%
- Hispanic voters 37%, steady from 36%
- Ages 18-29 30%, up from 20%
- 4-year degree holders 53%, up from 45%
- Pro-choice voters 51%, up from 41%
Conversely, Republican enthusiasm has mostly dropped or remained steady except among white voters and those with a high school diploma, two key blocs for Trump:
- Republicans 49%, down from 55%
- Strong Republicans 58%, down from 68%
- Weak Republicans 34%, up from 29%
- Lean Republicans 42%, down from 58%
- Men 50%, steady from 49%
- White voters 54%, up from 49%
- Ages 65+ 64%, steady from 62%
- Rural voters 52%, steady from 53%
- Pro-life voters 50%, down from 55%
- High school diploma holders 51%, up from 45%
- Church attendees (more than once a week) 54%, up from 51%
Interestingly, voter enthusiasm has dropped among those with less than a high school diploma, with 22% now "not at all enthusiastic" about voting, compared to 10% in June. Independent voter enthusiasm rose to 30%, up from 24%, but remains low. Suburban voter enthusiasm also slightly increased to 49% from 46%, as did voters aged 30-44, now at 37% compared to 34%.
While caveats about the margin of error in smaller subsets apply, the overall trends indicate new energy on the Democratic side, while Republican enthusiasm remains steady or slightly down. This newfound enthusiasm could translate into more Democratic votes, but may not be enough to secure more victories in partisan races, most of which remain non-competitive.
Farewell to Sender: Texas Court Strikes Down Election Code Provision
On September 4, the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, in a mostly united decision, upheld an appellate court ruling finding Section 255.004(b) of the Election Code to be an unconstitutional violation of the First Amendment.
Broadly, Chapter 255 places some limits on the content and delivery of political advertising. Section 255.004 prohibits political advertising that "purports to emanate from a source other than the true source." In other words, it prohibits faking the source of an ad or other campaign communication "with intent to injure a candidate or influence the result of an election."
The case arose from a former Plano council candidate accused of sending text messages that appeared to come from a different candidate. "While the government’s interest to protect voters from confusion, fraud, and undue influence by preventing misleading communications is certainly compelling, we agree ... it is not narrowly tailored to achieve the interests advanced by the State," wrote Judge J. McClure for the majority. "While the State tries to justify the statute as a means of preventing dirty tricks, the statute here criminalizes protected anonymous and truthful political speech and has the chilling effect of impermissibly restricting engagement in political discourse."
Even if that engagement is false and falsely attributed. Expect to see more dirty tricks now that the possibility of criminal prosecution is largely compromised less than two months before a general election.
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Texas Political Spotlight
In solidarity with the Texas Hill Country, please visit TXBiz News’ page to see ways to support our state through this hardship: Hill Country Flood Relief
Welcome back, friends
Governor Abbott has called a high-stakes special session packed with issues ranging from flood response to redistricting, abortion, and THC regulation, just weeks after deadly storms swept Central Texas. Meanwhile, Sen. Angela Paxton announced her divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton amidst a heated US Senate GOP primary. Lastly, in Boca Chica, SpaceX’s newest project is drawing attention from environmental advocates worried about its impact on coastal dunes.
Today’s Insights:
- Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
- Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
- Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
Governor Greg Abbott has called Texas lawmakers back to Austin for a July 21 special session with an 18-item agenda including issues such as natural disaster preparedness, abortion restrictions, THC regulation, and congressional redistricting. The top four items address the catastrophic flooding across Central Texas that left over 100 people dead and more than 160 still missing. Abbott is urging swift action to improve early warning systems and emergency communications, and to provide financial support for flood-impacted areas. “We must ensure better preparation for such events in the future,” the governor said while visiting Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit regions.
While flood response dominates the immediate urgency, the governor's agenda also reopens contentious debates that stalled during the regular session earlier this year. These include efforts to eliminate the STAAR test, limit abortion access, particularly regarding medical abortion, and regulate hemp-derived THC products without imposing a full ban. Abbott’s recent veto of a GOP-led THC ban signaled a more measured approach focused on potency limits potential regulation. At the same time, he is calling for legislation to “further protect unborn children and their mothers,” in what could become another high-profile ideological fight at the Capitol.
Perhaps the most politically consequential item is mid-decade redistricting. Abbott cites constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice, but critics, including Texas Democrats and advocacy groups, argue the effort is designed to redraw key districts in favor of Republicans ahead of the 2026 elections. Civil rights groups have also raised concerns about the inclusion of legislation to “protect women’s privacy in sex-segregated spaces,” interpreting it as a revival of what critics referred to as "bathroom bills". With lawmakers convening for up to 30 days, and the possibility of additional sessions, Texans can expect legislative action for a while.
Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
Sen. Angela Paxton announced Thursday she is filing for divorce from her husband, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In her statement, the McKinney Republican said she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that recent discoveries made continuing the marriage untenable. The couple have long been prominent figures in Texas politics, with Angela Paxton holding the Senate seat her husband once occupied. Ken Paxton attributed the separation to the “pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”
The announcement comes as Ken Paxton mounts a high-profile primary challenge against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Cameron County commissioners have approved a construction permit allowing SpaceX to build an air separator facility near the sand dunes of Boca Chica Beach, a decision that has sparked environmental concerns among local residents. The facility—described as a compact industrial plant with 20 structures on 1.66 acres—will separate nitrogen and oxygen from the air to support rocket launches, reducing the need for over 200 truck deliveries per launch from Brownsville. Although SpaceX agreed to mitigation measures and shifting construction further inland to minimize dune disruption, critics remain skeptical, citing limited public input and concerns over the project's impact on vegetation and wildlife. The permit requires SpaceX to restore or replace any damaged dunes, with enforcement authority resting with the Texas General Land Office.
“I think that it’s clearly true today how the government of Cameron County is kind of falling over to please SpaceX”
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Senate Race In Monday’s Austin press conference on the 2-year anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Democrat Colin Allred included his wife Alexandra Eber as a featured speaker on abortion issues. Eber discussed challenges faced by pregnant women and said that “Politicians in Texas, like Ted Cruz, have done the unthinkable, which is to make it ever harder for women in those unthinkable moments.”
The Texas Politics Project’s June polling found that 45% of Texans believe abortion laws should be less strict, with 23% preferring no change, and 20% preferring stricter abortion laws.
Cruz leads Allred 45% to 34%, according to the Texas Politics Project’s June poll. Allred leads Cruz among Hispanic voters, 38% to 34%, while Cruz led 18-29 year olds 32% to 30%.
Speaker Race The Republican Party of Texas listed “No Democrat Chairs” as its fourth highest legislative priority in its recently released 2024 platform. Last regular session, Speaker Dade Phelan appointed 9 of the 37 House committee chairmanships to Democrats. Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes in the runoff primary election and currently faces two challengers for the speakership: Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. Tom Oliverson.
Dade Phelan spending Speaker Dade Phelan made $5M in contributions to Texas House 2024 primary candidates and PACs. His largest 20 expenditures were:
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
TXElects Election Updates
We bring you the latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Texas campaign spending
Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC contributed at least $10M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Texans United for a Conservative Majority contributed at least $7.7M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Gov. Greg Abbott spent nearly contributed almost $9M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Senate Race
UT Tyler’s June 11-20 Texas Registered Voter Survey shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 43% to 39%. Respondents listed securing the border as the most important policy issue facing Texas, followed by inflation and reproductive rights.
HD 70
In a Dallas WFAA Inside Texas Politics interview, incumbent Democrat Rep. Mihaela Plesa responded to claims that her district is one of the likeliest to flip. “We do the work, they said that last cycle and we were out-funded 4 to 1 … and we won.” The interview also covers school choice, the Speaker race, IVF, grid infrastructure, and other issues.
Biden debate performance
The Texas Tribune reported on down-ballot discussions following President Biden’s debate performance last Thursday. Former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, currently challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, wrote in a text message that “Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way … Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.”
Democratic State Rep. Ron Reynolds of Missouri City wrote on Instagram that he was “very disturbed” by the debate and supported the nomination of VP Kamala Harris in place of President Biden. Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey took an alternate stance, encouraging members to not “say anything that they will regret later before everybody’s had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit.”
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
