Final Night at the DNC - Kamala Harris Accepts 2024 Presidential Nomination
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As the political landscape in Texas continues to shift, recent developments and trends are reshaping how Texans engage with their government and each other. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explore the latest from the Texas Democrats at the DNC, a closer look at the Cruz vs. Allred Senate race, the evolving voter trends across the state, and the ongoing legal battle over Texas’ social media safety law.
This edition draws on insights from the recent voter trends report by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration Program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, providing a detailed look at the shifting dynamics among Texas voters.
Today’s Insights:
- Texans at the DNC
- Cruz and Allred Neck and Neck in Texas Senate Race?
- Trump and Harris Face Off in Texas Voter Showdown
- Texas Takes on Big Tech with Social Media Law
Texans at the DNC
Texas Democrats’ key policy positions at this year’s Democratic National Convention were immigration reform, healthcare, and the mobilization of Latino voters.
Key Moments:
- Colin Allred, the Democratic US Senate candidate against US Senate Ted Cruz, publicly endorsed Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential race, praising her leadership and commitment to progressive values. He stated, "Kamala Harris is the leader we need to bring our country together and move it forward. I’m proud to stand with her as she fights for every American."
- Congresswoman Veronica Escobar delivered a speech on the need for comprehensive immigration reform, highlighting the unique challenges faced by border communities. She emphasized that “immigration is not just a border issue, it’s a human issue,” calling for humane policies that respect the dignity of all individuals.
- Congressman Joaquin Castro focused on the importance of voter mobilization, particularly among the Latino community, which he described as "the future of Texas and the Democratic Party." Castro highlighted the strides made in increasing voter turnout in recent elections but stressed the need for continued efforts to engage young and minority voters.
- Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. Rep and 2020 presidential candidate, spoke about healthcare, reiterating his call for expanding Medicaid in Texas, which has not adopted the expansion under the Affordable Care Act. O'Rourke argued that “every Texan deserves access to affordable healthcare.”
Cruz vs. Allred Neck and Neck in Texas Senate Race?
The Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred is thin. Cruz holds a slight lead with 46.6% of likely voters compared to Allred's 44.5%, while Libertarian candidate Ted Brown captures 2.5%, leaving 6.4% undecided. This data comes from the August survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, in collaboration with Texas Southern University, which focused on 1,365 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.65%. Gender and racial divides are stark: Cruz leads Allred by 13 points among men (52% to 39%), but Allred is ahead by 7 points among women (49% to 42%). Among white Texans, 57% support Cruz, while Allred leads among Latino and Black voters with 46% and 72% respectively. With 93% of voters on both sides certain of their choice, this race will likely hinge on undecided voters and turnout among key demographics.
Trump and Harris Face Off in Texas Voter Showdown
That same poll shows Texas voters with a clear but narrow preference for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Trump leads with 49.5% of likely voters, while Harris trails at 44.6%. The August survey, which focused on 1,365 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.65%, reveals that Harris's support has increased by 4.3 points since June, while Trump’s has edged up by 0.6 points. The gender gap is significant: Trump has an 18-point lead among men (56% to 38%), but Harris leads among women by 6 points (50% to 44%). Racial divides are also pronounced—57% of white Texans back Trump, while Harris has overwhelming support among Black Texans (77% to 17%). Among Latino voters, the race is tight, with 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris. Both candidates retain strong loyalty from their bases, but independent voters remain a wildcard, with 41% leaning toward Trump and 39% toward Harris.
Texas Takes on Big Tech with Social Media Law
The Texas social media safety law, often referred to as HB 20 from the 87th Texas Legislative Session - 1st special, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing debate over free speech and content moderation in the digital age. HB 20 is aimed at curbing what the state perceives as censorship by social media companies. However, the law has faced numerous legal challenges, culminating in a significant court case that could have broad implications for the future of online speech and state-level regulation.
Key Provisions of HB 20:
- Content Moderation Restrictions: The law prohibits large social media platforms (those with over 50 million active users in the U.S.) from banning or blocking users based on their viewpoints. This section of the law (Chapter 143A of the Texas Civil Practice and Remedies Code) has been the most contentious, as it directly challenges the content moderation practices of tech giants like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube.
- Transparency Requirements: HB 20 mandates that social media companies disclose how they moderate content, including how they handle complaints and the criteria used for content removal or user bans. This requirement aims to increase accountability and transparency in how platforms enforce their community guidelines.
- Appeal Process: The law establishes a process for users to appeal content removal or account suspensions, requiring companies to provide clear reasons for their decisions and offer a way for users to challenge those actions.
Legal Challenges and Court Case:
- The law was immediately challenged by tech companies and free speech advocates, who argue that HB 20 violates the First Amendment by compelling platforms to host speech they may find objectionable. Critics also contend that the law is overly broad and could lead to unintended consequences, such as the proliferation of harmful content online.
- In a recent court case, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld parts of the law, allowing certain provisions to take effect while leaving others in limbo. The decision has been appealed, and the case could eventually reach the Supreme Court, setting a national precedent.
Impacted Sections of Texas Code:
- Chapter 143A, Texas Civil Practice and Remedies Code: This chapter, created by HB 20, outlines the restrictions on content moderation and the transparency requirements for social media platforms. It is at the heart of the legal challenges, with opponents arguing that it infringes on the platforms’ rights to manage their services according to their terms.
National Impact:
- The outcome of the legal battle over HB 20 could influence similar legislation in other states. States like Florida have passed comparable laws, which are also being challenged in courts, making the Texas case a critical test for state-level regulation of social media.
What’s Next?
- As the case progresses through the courts, both sides are preparing for what could be a landmark decision. If upheld, HB 20 could dramatically alter the landscape of content moderation, forcing platforms to reconsider how they manage speech on their services. The law’s supporters argue it is necessary to protect free speech online, while opponents warn it could lead to a flood of harmful or extremist content.
Quote of the Day
“Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.” - Theodore Roosevelt
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Texas Political Spotlight
In solidarity with the Texas Hill Country, please visit TXBiz News’ page to see ways to support our state through this hardship: Hill Country Flood Relief
Welcome back, friends
Governor Abbott has called a high-stakes special session packed with issues ranging from flood response to redistricting, abortion, and THC regulation, just weeks after deadly storms swept Central Texas. Meanwhile, Sen. Angela Paxton announced her divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton amidst a heated US Senate GOP primary. Lastly, in Boca Chica, SpaceX’s newest project is drawing attention from environmental advocates worried about its impact on coastal dunes.
Today’s Insights:
- Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
- Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
- Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
Governor Greg Abbott has called Texas lawmakers back to Austin for a July 21 special session with an 18-item agenda including issues such as natural disaster preparedness, abortion restrictions, THC regulation, and congressional redistricting. The top four items address the catastrophic flooding across Central Texas that left over 100 people dead and more than 160 still missing. Abbott is urging swift action to improve early warning systems and emergency communications, and to provide financial support for flood-impacted areas. “We must ensure better preparation for such events in the future,” the governor said while visiting Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit regions.
While flood response dominates the immediate urgency, the governor's agenda also reopens contentious debates that stalled during the regular session earlier this year. These include efforts to eliminate the STAAR test, limit abortion access, particularly regarding medical abortion, and regulate hemp-derived THC products without imposing a full ban. Abbott’s recent veto of a GOP-led THC ban signaled a more measured approach focused on potency limits potential regulation. At the same time, he is calling for legislation to “further protect unborn children and their mothers,” in what could become another high-profile ideological fight at the Capitol.
Perhaps the most politically consequential item is mid-decade redistricting. Abbott cites constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice, but critics, including Texas Democrats and advocacy groups, argue the effort is designed to redraw key districts in favor of Republicans ahead of the 2026 elections. Civil rights groups have also raised concerns about the inclusion of legislation to “protect women’s privacy in sex-segregated spaces,” interpreting it as a revival of what critics referred to as "bathroom bills". With lawmakers convening for up to 30 days, and the possibility of additional sessions, Texans can expect legislative action for a while.
Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
Sen. Angela Paxton announced Thursday she is filing for divorce from her husband, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In her statement, the McKinney Republican said she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that recent discoveries made continuing the marriage untenable. The couple have long been prominent figures in Texas politics, with Angela Paxton holding the Senate seat her husband once occupied. Ken Paxton attributed the separation to the “pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”
The announcement comes as Ken Paxton mounts a high-profile primary challenge against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Cameron County commissioners have approved a construction permit allowing SpaceX to build an air separator facility near the sand dunes of Boca Chica Beach, a decision that has sparked environmental concerns among local residents. The facility—described as a compact industrial plant with 20 structures on 1.66 acres—will separate nitrogen and oxygen from the air to support rocket launches, reducing the need for over 200 truck deliveries per launch from Brownsville. Although SpaceX agreed to mitigation measures and shifting construction further inland to minimize dune disruption, critics remain skeptical, citing limited public input and concerns over the project's impact on vegetation and wildlife. The permit requires SpaceX to restore or replace any damaged dunes, with enforcement authority resting with the Texas General Land Office.
“I think that it’s clearly true today how the government of Cameron County is kind of falling over to please SpaceX”
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Senate Race In Monday’s Austin press conference on the 2-year anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Democrat Colin Allred included his wife Alexandra Eber as a featured speaker on abortion issues. Eber discussed challenges faced by pregnant women and said that “Politicians in Texas, like Ted Cruz, have done the unthinkable, which is to make it ever harder for women in those unthinkable moments.”
The Texas Politics Project’s June polling found that 45% of Texans believe abortion laws should be less strict, with 23% preferring no change, and 20% preferring stricter abortion laws.
Cruz leads Allred 45% to 34%, according to the Texas Politics Project’s June poll. Allred leads Cruz among Hispanic voters, 38% to 34%, while Cruz led 18-29 year olds 32% to 30%.
Speaker Race The Republican Party of Texas listed “No Democrat Chairs” as its fourth highest legislative priority in its recently released 2024 platform. Last regular session, Speaker Dade Phelan appointed 9 of the 37 House committee chairmanships to Democrats. Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes in the runoff primary election and currently faces two challengers for the speakership: Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. Tom Oliverson.
Dade Phelan spending Speaker Dade Phelan made $5M in contributions to Texas House 2024 primary candidates and PACs. His largest 20 expenditures were:
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
TXElects Election Updates
We bring you the latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Texas campaign spending
Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC contributed at least $10M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Texans United for a Conservative Majority contributed at least $7.7M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Gov. Greg Abbott spent nearly contributed almost $9M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Senate Race
UT Tyler’s June 11-20 Texas Registered Voter Survey shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 43% to 39%. Respondents listed securing the border as the most important policy issue facing Texas, followed by inflation and reproductive rights.
HD 70
In a Dallas WFAA Inside Texas Politics interview, incumbent Democrat Rep. Mihaela Plesa responded to claims that her district is one of the likeliest to flip. “We do the work, they said that last cycle and we were out-funded 4 to 1 … and we won.” The interview also covers school choice, the Speaker race, IVF, grid infrastructure, and other issues.
Biden debate performance
The Texas Tribune reported on down-ballot discussions following President Biden’s debate performance last Thursday. Former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, currently challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, wrote in a text message that “Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way … Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.”
Democratic State Rep. Ron Reynolds of Missouri City wrote on Instagram that he was “very disturbed” by the debate and supported the nomination of VP Kamala Harris in place of President Biden. Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey took an alternate stance, encouraging members to not “say anything that they will regret later before everybody’s had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit.”
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
