Allred Campaign Internal Poll and Texas Election Security
Welcome back, friends
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred’s campaign has released an internal poll showing a 46%-46% tie in his race against Sen. Ted Cruz, though recent external polls suggest Cruz holds a slight lead. With the Texas Senate race rated as “Lean Republican,” the data indicates a highly competitive contest as early voting begins. Meanwhile, Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson has announced new election security measures, and Rep. Hugh Shine and AG Ken Paxton emphasize voter awareness and integrity in the final days before Election Day.
Today’s Insights:
- Allred’s Campaign Releases Poll Showing Tied Texas Senate Race
- Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson Asserts Strengthened Election Security
- Rep. Hugh Shine Encourages Bell County Voters to Observe Polls
- AG Ken Paxton Warns of Voter Fraud at Poker Event
Allred’s Campaign Releases Poll Showing Tied Texas Senate Race
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred’s campaign has released an internal poll indicating a tie in the Texas Senate race, with both Allred and incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz polling at 46% among likely voters. The poll, conducted from October 18 to October 23, surveyed 800 likely voters via landline, cell phone, and text-to-online interviews. This reflects a narrowing of the gap since May, when Cruz held a seven-point lead over Allred (47% to 40%), and a two-point lead earlier in October (44% to 46%).
However, recent external polls provide additional context on the race’s dynamics. An October poll by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found Cruz leading by seven points, at 51% to 44%. Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll, also from October, showed Cruz with a four-point lead, 50% to 46%, within the margin of error and indicating a close race. We’ve rated the Texas Senate race as “Lean Republican” and project it to be closer than other statewide races.
Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson Asserts Strengthened Election Security
Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson recently outlined enhanced security measures for the upcoming election in her interview with Inside Texas Politics, asserting that "this upcoming election will be the most secure election Texas has ever had." To ensure the integrity of the state’s election system, Nelson highlighted Texas' commitment to protecting voter data and preventing duplicate registrations. Although Texas has not joined additional multi-state systems for managing voter rolls, Nelson emphasized that the state has implemented new tools and technologies to detect and prevent voter fraud. These tools include advanced voter roll management within Texas, allowing for more accurate detection of duplicate records, improved data matching techniques to cross-check voter information across various databases, and enhanced cybersecurity protocols to protect voter information.
Rep. Hugh Shine Urges Bell County Voters to Support Democrat Jennifer Lee Over GOP Nominee
Republican Rep. Hugh Shine recently urged Bell County voters to vote against GOP nominee Hillary Hickland in the Texas House District 55 race. In a message to voters, Shine voiced his support for Democratic candidate Jennifer Lee, stating, "If public education is a priority for them, they need to vote for (Democrat) Jennifer Lee." Hickland defeated Shine, 53%-40%, in the Republican primary.
First Reported by Quorum Report
AG Ken Paxton Warns of Voter Fraud at Poker Event
At a Texas “Politics and Poker” event, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton warned about the risks of voter fraud and urging Texans to remain vigilant during the election process. This contrasts with Texas Security of State Jane Nelson messaging that this year’s election is a secure election.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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Texas Political Spotlight
In solidarity with the Texas Hill Country, please visit TXBiz News’ page to see ways to support our state through this hardship: Hill Country Flood Relief
Welcome back, friends
Governor Abbott has called a high-stakes special session packed with issues ranging from flood response to redistricting, abortion, and THC regulation, just weeks after deadly storms swept Central Texas. Meanwhile, Sen. Angela Paxton announced her divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton amidst a heated US Senate GOP primary. Lastly, in Boca Chica, SpaceX’s newest project is drawing attention from environmental advocates worried about its impact on coastal dunes.
Today’s Insights:
- Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
- Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
- Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Governor Abbott Officially Sets Special Session Agenda
Governor Greg Abbott has called Texas lawmakers back to Austin for a July 21 special session with an 18-item agenda including issues such as natural disaster preparedness, abortion restrictions, THC regulation, and congressional redistricting. The top four items address the catastrophic flooding across Central Texas that left over 100 people dead and more than 160 still missing. Abbott is urging swift action to improve early warning systems and emergency communications, and to provide financial support for flood-impacted areas. “We must ensure better preparation for such events in the future,” the governor said while visiting Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit regions.
While flood response dominates the immediate urgency, the governor's agenda also reopens contentious debates that stalled during the regular session earlier this year. These include efforts to eliminate the STAAR test, limit abortion access, particularly regarding medical abortion, and regulate hemp-derived THC products without imposing a full ban. Abbott’s recent veto of a GOP-led THC ban signaled a more measured approach focused on potency limits potential regulation. At the same time, he is calling for legislation to “further protect unborn children and their mothers,” in what could become another high-profile ideological fight at the Capitol.
Perhaps the most politically consequential item is mid-decade redistricting. Abbott cites constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice, but critics, including Texas Democrats and advocacy groups, argue the effort is designed to redraw key districts in favor of Republicans ahead of the 2026 elections. Civil rights groups have also raised concerns about the inclusion of legislation to “protect women’s privacy in sex-segregated spaces,” interpreting it as a revival of what critics referred to as "bathroom bills". With lawmakers convening for up to 30 days, and the possibility of additional sessions, Texans can expect legislative action for a while.
Sen. Angela Paxton Announces Divorce from Attorney General Ken Paxton Amidst Heated US Senate GOP Primary
Sen. Angela Paxton announced Thursday she is filing for divorce from her husband, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In her statement, the McKinney Republican said she had “earnestly pursued reconciliation,” but that recent discoveries made continuing the marriage untenable. The couple have long been prominent figures in Texas politics, with Angela Paxton holding the Senate seat her husband once occupied. Ken Paxton attributed the separation to the “pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”
The announcement comes as Ken Paxton mounts a high-profile primary challenge against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Space X Set To Build Liquid Oxygen Plant in South Texas
Cameron County commissioners have approved a construction permit allowing SpaceX to build an air separator facility near the sand dunes of Boca Chica Beach, a decision that has sparked environmental concerns among local residents. The facility—described as a compact industrial plant with 20 structures on 1.66 acres—will separate nitrogen and oxygen from the air to support rocket launches, reducing the need for over 200 truck deliveries per launch from Brownsville. Although SpaceX agreed to mitigation measures and shifting construction further inland to minimize dune disruption, critics remain skeptical, citing limited public input and concerns over the project's impact on vegetation and wildlife. The permit requires SpaceX to restore or replace any damaged dunes, with enforcement authority resting with the Texas General Land Office.
“I think that it’s clearly true today how the government of Cameron County is kind of falling over to please SpaceX”
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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TXElects Election Updates
We bring you latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Senate Race In Monday’s Austin press conference on the 2-year anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Democrat Colin Allred included his wife Alexandra Eber as a featured speaker on abortion issues. Eber discussed challenges faced by pregnant women and said that “Politicians in Texas, like Ted Cruz, have done the unthinkable, which is to make it ever harder for women in those unthinkable moments.”
The Texas Politics Project’s June polling found that 45% of Texans believe abortion laws should be less strict, with 23% preferring no change, and 20% preferring stricter abortion laws.
Cruz leads Allred 45% to 34%, according to the Texas Politics Project’s June poll. Allred leads Cruz among Hispanic voters, 38% to 34%, while Cruz led 18-29 year olds 32% to 30%.
Speaker Race The Republican Party of Texas listed “No Democrat Chairs” as its fourth highest legislative priority in its recently released 2024 platform. Last regular session, Speaker Dade Phelan appointed 9 of the 37 House committee chairmanships to Democrats. Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes in the runoff primary election and currently faces two challengers for the speakership: Rep. Shelby Slawson and Rep. Tom Oliverson.
Dade Phelan spending Speaker Dade Phelan made $5M in contributions to Texas House 2024 primary candidates and PACs. His largest 20 expenditures were:
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
TXElects Election Updates
We bring you the latest candidate filings, campaign finance information and more for all candidates running for statewide, legislative and congressional offices.
Texas campaign spending
Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC contributed at least $10M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Texans United for a Conservative Majority contributed at least $7.7M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Gov. Greg Abbott spent nearly contributed almost $9M in total to Texas Legislature primary and runoff races. The top 20 expenditures were:
Senate Race
UT Tyler’s June 11-20 Texas Registered Voter Survey shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 43% to 39%. Respondents listed securing the border as the most important policy issue facing Texas, followed by inflation and reproductive rights.
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In a Dallas WFAA Inside Texas Politics interview, incumbent Democrat Rep. Mihaela Plesa responded to claims that her district is one of the likeliest to flip. “We do the work, they said that last cycle and we were out-funded 4 to 1 … and we won.” The interview also covers school choice, the Speaker race, IVF, grid infrastructure, and other issues.
Biden debate performance
The Texas Tribune reported on down-ballot discussions following President Biden’s debate performance last Thursday. Former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, currently challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, wrote in a text message that “Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way … Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.”
Democratic State Rep. Ron Reynolds of Missouri City wrote on Instagram that he was “very disturbed” by the debate and supported the nomination of VP Kamala Harris in place of President Biden. Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey took an alternate stance, encouraging members to not “say anything that they will regret later before everybody’s had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit.”
Explore our databases and analysis tools for more election insights.
