#2 - Jeff Blaylock: Unpacking The Texas Elections

Welcome back to Bills and Business podcast that has guests in the Texas legislature and business community all talking about the political shifts in shaping Texas. I'm your host, Laura Carr, co-founder of USLege and TXLege. Today, we have a special episode for you as we look ahead to this upcoming general election. Joining me is Jeff Blaylock, the founder of Texas Elects and now, or senior news editor at TXLege News.

Jeff's a well-known elections expert with over 25 years experience in political analysis campaigns, government and advocacy. Here's our conversation. Jeff, I'm so glad to have you here. Thank you so much for coming on the show, and it's been so fun working with you. But I'm sure our viewers are going to love to hear all your thoughts about elections.

So welcome to the podcast. Thank you. Glad to be here. Yes. Well, how has it been, being back in Texas? It's always good to be back in Texas. You know, I was in Austin for a number of years. So it's the blueberry in the bowl of tomato soup that is Texas. And so I wasn't in any competitive districts.

I didn't get the same election runoff experience a lot of other people got. But now I'm in a swing congressional district in New Mexico. We get 20 mail pieces a day. We get three block walkers a day. We actually had to put a sign on the door that said we already voted. Trying to keep the block walkers away.

It kind of works. Not always good for them. Good for them. Appreciate the persistence. Well, I know that it's been on the top of everyone's mind lately. Just the Texas Democrat's kind of historic losing streak in Texas. And I would really like to kind of dive deeper into that with you. So over the last decade, you know, Democrats in Texas have faced a lot of challenges, especially winning statewide.

And we have a lot of elections up now. So what do you see as the primary factors contributing to this trend we're seeing? Well, we're going on 30 years. If, if the trend holds through this election since a Democrat last won statewide in Texas. So it was 1994. Every other state in the country, including some that are far redder than Texas is, has elected a Democrat statewide since Texas last did it.

I think the overall issue, really, for the Democrats is that the brand is broken in the state of Texas, for many years. Texas was blue in the modern sense of blue and red. And there was a lot of support for Democrats in rural areas of Texas that is completely evaporated. And now the challenge is trying to overcome all those rural votes in the urban areas.

And to this point, they have not found a formula to put together the right coalition of voters in the right numbers to overcome what is now a rural red wall. We're seeing a lot of demographic shifts in Texas as well. I mean, I was someone who moved here, from DC in 2021. We had a huge influx of people for moving from all across the states in the world.

Around that time as well. So how do you see that potentially impacting this election and then also into the future? Well, certainly there are in every election, there are a number of new voters interested in a fairly large number in a state as large as Texas. But the issue is that they vote at such a much lower rate than the then folks who have been here and have been voting for.

We used to just, I used to think of it in this terms, like, if you you vote regularly, you're much more likely to vote again. That's, hashtag analysis there. Very smart stuff. And so folks who are new to the state, we don't have a record really to look at, to see where how they voted.

But we do know, as they don't vote anywhere near as often as or as to the same percentage, as people who've been here before. And so if you're voting, if your coalition to win depends upon new voters, you need a very large number of them in order to get enough who actually vote to make any difference. Well, then let's jump into the, you know, the U.S. Senate race, which is really on a lot of people's minds.

You got Senator Ted Cruz, and we got Representative Cullen. All right. So let's talk a little bit more about that. What are your predictions and what are your thoughts on that election? Being close? Well, you know, I think the national the national narrative about it being close is is a little off. I think it's not as close as it as as folks are making it out to be, but it will probably be closer than most of the rest of the statewide races in the state.

‍

There's, such a narrowing between the top and bottom performing, people of any party in the state because of the prevalence of what we used to call, single punch, straight white state party voting, that's gone above the effects of it are still there, and that we see a tremendous number of people who will vote only Republican or vote only Democrat.

And as long as there's not much crossover, there's not much, independence in those votes. It just simply becomes a which party's got more voters out there. And at the moment, and for quite some time now, it's been the Republican Party. You mentioned this. You don't think it's going to be as close as people seem? Why do you think that is?

Well, I think that the, better O'Rourke, Ted Cruz race was probably the high water mark for Democrats in certainly in the last, you know, since 1998. So certainly the last few years. And Beto had a lot more energy in that campaign. He had a fair amount more money and a lot more, just a lot better circumstance.

Given the fact that in 2018, Beto O'Rourke was running against a Trump White House and against that policy and what those policies in Washington calling all red is having to run away from, the Biden White House. So that dynamic alone, I think, is going to make this race, farther apart, than what happened in 2018.

But there's also a little less money behind all red. And I think just the overall conditions for Republicans, in terms of having what I call that rural red wall, they're still there. So the fact that Colin. All right, as a candidate hasn't changed that fact. There's still that million or so votes that has to be made up somewhere.

And I don't see him doing it. You mentioned the money in these elections. And I've noticed the, you know, the trends that we we discuss all the time are Senator Ted Cruz is consistently not, received as much helping finance, you know, donations. So what, would you say is, is happening here where a candidate is not receiving, you know, as much money and being outperformed by the Democrat yet still not, not winning.

Yeah. So, you know, money doesn't always buy everything. Money helps. And generally speaking, the candidate with the most money, tends to do fairly well. But in this case, we're not really talking about money. We're talking about party ID. And that's a much stronger, force than, campaign finances when it comes to a general election.

We're talking a primary election. The money has a lot to do with it. The candidate with the most campaign resources, hits, gets into the, runoff or wins the primary outright at a very high rate. But now we're talking about party ID and better. O'Rourke spent, you know, $80 million in 2018 to finish one and a quarter percentage points ahead of a Court of Criminal Appeals candidate who spent nothing.

Wow. Yeah. So, speaking of those numbers, you know those exactly from Beto a works, election. And then Colin all runs. I know by those is 80.2. I think Collins is somewhere around 56, 58 million at this point. Probably a little higher. I imagine that report was from a few weeks ago. But that that marginal spending doesn't seem to make any real difference.

With the party IDs being so strong for voters here in Texas. Interesting. Well, in addition to the money and all those things, obviously we've had a lot of impacts in the statewide elections and House and Senate, with the school choice positions and then also the historic impeachment trial of the attorney general. So how as though have those affected, you know, the primary election all the way through to now, if, if any, by were quite a factor in the Republican primaries in particular, that there seemed to be two very divisive issues.

In the past we have seen more conservative challengers to more moderate Republican incumbents, but there hasn't been a galvanizing issue. And this particular legislative session created two. You pointed out the school choice votes, and the choice on the House side to impeach, General Paxton and send those charges over to the Senate. Those became very important in terms of Republican challengers.

You know, we had ten Republican incumbents ousted in the primary. We had five more ousted and run off with several others who just retired rather than, face that kind of a primary election. So it was a huge force there in terms of the general election. I don't believe that it's relevant. I really I mean, there are not most of the races where school choice in particular was a factor in the primary are in safe Republican districts now.

So it won't be it won't be a factor in that case. You might see in a couple of cases, where the districts are much closer in terms of their partizan balance. You could see, some mailers about school choice, for the Democratic side being that this, this candidate over here is going to vote for this, and we don't like it.

But by and large, I don't think it's either of those is going to be an issue. When you look over at General Paxton in the in the impeachment that was such a Partizan issue, the Democrats were almost entirely behind it, in favor of it. And so that's now not even a factor. Interesting. And I know that, you know, voter turnout has kind of shifted in the, you know, southern border and West Texas a lot more conservative and and on the Republican side.

‍

‍

So how do you think that's going to change the landscape this election? Well, I think it will continue. We've seen a rather dramatic shift in South Texas, toward Republican candidates, even though Democrats are still winning. And a lot of those counties, they're winning by far smaller margins. And I think in some cases that we will actually see Republicans overtake them, in in parts of South Texas, we already know that House district 80, which was represented by Traci King, a Democrat from Batesville, for a number of years, he stepped back, he retired.

And that this district we now have rated, as safe Republican because it is just in an area of rural South Texas, and that's very strongly Republican. So I think we will continue to see, South Texas become redder. And that adds to the challenge of the Democrats statewide, because now they have to make up that vote deficit, too.

That used to be a vote surplus, and it's becoming a vote deficit that they will also have to find a way to make up in the cities. So far, they have been able to do that. Interesting. And do you think that that is surely just border policy or what do you think the reason for that is? I like this a lot of it.

Yeah, I really do. I you know, the Republicans, particularly since 2016, have been, able to use, immigration, and, and border situation, border politics to their advantage. And that seems to really be, reflected in the votes that are going on down there and in the voter trends. I think that those voters seem to be really tired of what they perceive as the situation, with the border or what they experienced down there.

And so that does seem to be a driving element, in this change. And then you have a group of people that are by, you know, social and cultural tradition, a little bit more conservative, than some of the rest of this of, of the Democratic base. And so having them drift toward Republicans, and in some cases move quite headlong into Republicans really makes sense, from a value standpoint, even though for many, many decades they have been very strongly, Democratic, in their support up until about 2016.

Absolutely. And, and so we've kind of seen this trend of moving more conservative. What are your predictions for this election? We're seeing in the primary, you know, we had what everyone was calling a bloodbath. Are you expecting anything like that, this general election? No, because there's not enough seats for that to even be possible. You know, as I said, we've got so many seats in the legislature that are rated safe Republican or safe Democrat.

Partizan, control of the chambers is not a question that's not in play. So with only a handful of seats that are available, there isn't really an opportunity for there to be a Partizan bloodbath. The state's just simply not that competitive. So we might be talking about, you know, 1 or 2 or maybe three incumbents being defeated, in this general election.

All, all the action was in March, and I do you think there'll be any surprises at all? There's always surprises, but sometimes the surprises there isn't a surprise. I think the surprise at this point would be, you know, if, if we looked at, like, Senate, the Senate district with Morgan Lamb and tears running in South Texas, if that were like a 5 or 6 point victory for the Democrats, that I think would be surprising because I think it will be much closer than that.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see. And also win that seat. But I think, generally speaking, unless there is a coalition of voters that doesn't typically vote, that turns out in an inordinately larger numbers and all points in one direction. So all Republican or all Democrat, I don't see a really big surprise out there. It could still happen, of course.

So I the column surprises. Yes. But that's just not what the numbers seem to be indicating. It's not what the voter trends have been. And, you know, if you have to, if you have to rely on a coalition of voters who don't normally vote to win new elections, you're not going to win elections for sure. Well, going into kind of more of the legislative session now, knowing this landscape, where do you see what are your predictions for this upcoming session?

What's on the agenda? And most important, what's on the agenda will be whatever is on primary voters minds in March of 2026. I think that we we've kind of established that that's where the action is in these districts. The fewer districts that are competitive in November, the more they become competitive in March. And so I believe that we will see a number of what I would consider to be, you know, social conservative priorities, you know, such as, abortion restrictions such as election security, such as school choice and those kinds of, of issues that seem to move the electorate in March of this year.

And we would project would move them again in March of 2026. So I think that's the that's the starting point for the session. And then the budget, because you got to have one of those after this election. We know politics doesn't really stop never. So going into the speaker race, we've had a lot of new people put their hat in the ring for this election.

What do you see the outcome there being? Any thoughts on predictions? Well, the speaker's race is a bunch of inside baseball. And this is not a this is not an election that the voters participate in directly because they have elected the people who make this choice. And the 150 members of the legislature will make it. We have the incumbent, David Phelan.

And we have several challengers, seem to be kind of coalescing around David Clarke of Tarrant County, but that it's a little early to kind of lock in that that second challenger. But what folks should understand about a speaker's election is that all 150 members have a vote in this, not just one caucus or the other.

So to the extent that the Democratic caucus, which will be in the mid 60s to upper 60s, the extent that that caucus holds together, that's a very powerful bloc of votes. To elect a speaker when you need a total of 76. So if Phelan can hang on to most of the most or all of the Democratic Bloc, he doesn't need a whole lot of the Republican caucus in order to keep the gavel, which means that anyone who's challenging him from the right needs almost the entire Republican caucus to hold together in order to get to 76.

That may happen because I said, you know, we've got the primary being the big driver, folks already know that supporting Phelan will generate a primary opponent almost automatically on the Republican side. So that's a calculus that the members will have to make. So to get to 76, you know, you would need almost the entire Republican caucus if you were challenging Phelan.

So it won't be a Democratic speaker. But those Democrats still need to vote for somebody. Presumably it would be Dade Phelan, or if one of the other candidates offers a better, better deal for them. From a policy and chairmanship perspective, pretty sure they won't. No one else will do that. That's part of the reason for challenging him in the first place is to get rid of Democratic chairs, and pursue a more conservative agenda so that locks any challenger, whether it's David Cook or Tom all of a sudden, or someone else.

And in needing 76 out of the Republican caucus, to get the gavel, that's a tall order. It's not impossible. But it's it's going to be a strong challenge, for that candidate to do. And feeling still has the power of incumbency, and the ability to make promises to the Democratic caucus that his challenger probably can't make.

And what does that process look like come January 14th, beginning of session? What is the election process look like now? Sadly, the election for speaker is usually not dramatic at all because every week it's been nailed down. And so they are either voted in by acclamation or it's 146 to 2 or something like that. So I think all that inside baseball will happen before they convene and we should enter the session, with not only a good idea of who was speaker, but knowing who has the votes to be speaker.

My guess is a number of candidates, including, you know, cook will have numbers, and say they have numbers and they may, may have been told by members that they have it. It's not unusual. And speaker's rights for multiple candidates to have been told by at least 76 people that they have their vote. That's not how it's going to work in the end.

But that's how it works in the beginning. But I think all that palace intrigue will have worked itself out before the session convenes. And, I do see the house organizing itself along a fairly normal schedule. And I think we'll see a situation like in the US Congress where we went for several days and multiple speaker votes.

It just it's just not where this chamber is. I think we'll have a speaker before the session begins. The bigger issue to me statewide isn't so much do we have a new speaker? It's if Trump is elected back to the white House, do we have a new attorney general or a new governor or a new lieutenant governor?

Because there are promotions, from the state offices up to the federal officers reading my mind, Jeff, that is definitely what I was going to bring up was just this presidential election, how this is going to impact potentially the statewide, races and, and what that would even look like if there were some appointments, just like you mentioned, the attorney general getting appointed to a position in the federal government.

What do you see there happening on the state level? Well, I guess it depends on who it was. Not which office is elevated as to what happens if it's Abbott. And of course, do Hurst would become governor and then the Senate would select among their number a new lieutenant governor. Same thing would happen if Do Hurst were selected to not do her stop.

New start. I would say that I said that twice since Dan Patrick do her time on. That's okay. All right. Ask the question again. This. Okay. I'll probably just use that same question. That little clip too. Okay. So it's just going to just start the answer over. Okay. How do you see the, the role of the statewide positions changing if, if President Trump were to be elected.

So part of that's going to depend entirely on which person is elevated. If it's the governor that's elevated, then it would be, the lieutenant governor, Dan Patrick would become governor. And then the the senators would pick among their number a new lieutenant governor. If it is someone like General Abbott who's elevated, then, Governor Abbott would get to choose a successor, which would give him considerable sway over what would happen next.

And then that person would, along with the other statewide officers, be up for election in 2026. So the voters wouldn't have really an opportunity to have a say in that until that next election. So if if assuming Abbott remains governor and someone else who's elevated, he has a lot of power and influence in that decision. If it's Abbott himself who's elevated, then it becomes more of, the same insider baseball you see in the House happening in the Senate.

Again. How about the attorney general? There's definitely been some talks of him being elevated. If President Trump were to be reelected, certainly. And that would that would created an opening for Governor Abbott to, to raise someone else into that position. And that person would have a significant advantage toward keeping the office in 2026. Interesting times were and a lot of unknowns.

Yes. Any other thoughts to share before we wrap up today? It's been a pleasure having you on and talking, but any other thoughts on this upcoming election you want to share? We've seen some fairly strong turnout so far in terms of early voting, and what we know is that people who voted in the primaries are turning out in fairly large numbers compared to to people who have not.

And at this point, the Republican primary voters have about a 700,000 or so vote advantage over Democratic primary voters. And of course, it's not to say that that is the exact part of the balance of the vote, but it's very strong, I would suspect. So we are already seeing, you know, there's a significant number, significant surplus of Republican vote in early voting.

We also probably, assume we will assume that the early vote is the high watermark for Democratic candidates in the election, because Republicans tend to turnout better on Election Day than Democrats do. So if we get to the end of early voting, we get to 7:00 on Election Day and the early numbers are out. That's probably the the peak of where the Democrats are going to sit, and then they will start to drop down.

So if they're already under 50, they're won't get above 50. If they're above 50, then we have some interesting things to happen. It's definitely going to be interesting on a on a federal level on a, on a statewide level. And I'm excited to see it. And you live tweeting with you on election night. So I so appreciate you coming on and sharing all this.

And Jeff, how can people find you if they want to hear more about you other than text ledge news where they can find you? I'm on the Twitters at Jeff Blaylock. But I tend to focus that on fantasy football. And the numbers there, it's also a numbers game. But I do support and stuff.

There will be on election. Wonderful. Well, thank you for being on. And thanks for listening to bills and Business and look forward to having you back next time. Make sure to subscribe.

‍

🎙️We Have a Podcast! 🎙️

Bills and Business is your go-to podcast for conversations related to Texas legislation and business. Hosted by Laura Carr, Co-Founder of USLege—an AI-driven legislative tracking software—we bring you in-depth analysis on economic trends, impactful legislation, and key developments shaping Texas business.

Subscribe on Youtube and Spotify for weekly episodes!