By the Numbers: Incumbents Facing Runoffs
Mar 27, 2022 | By the Numbers
30% Winning percentage of incumbent statewide officials, legislators and members of Congress in primary runoffs since 1996. Last week, we explored the historical success rates of first-place candidates entering primary runoffs for “open” seats, meaning no incumbent in...
By the Numbers: First-place Candidates’ Historical Runoff Performance
Mar 20, 2022 | By the Numbers
83% Winning percentage of runoff candidates who finished 10% or more ahead of their challenger in the primary election since 2002. There have been 204 “open” primary runoff elections for state, legislative and federal offices since 2002, and the candidate who finished...
By the Numbers: Fundraising as Measure of Primary Success
Feb 21, 2022 | By the Numbers, Campaign Finance
77% Historical percentage of the top fundraising candidate to win or advance to a runoff in a significant open-seat primary race. Since 2006, there have been 145 races that met these criteria: Primary for statewide, legislative or congressional office No incumbent in...
By the Numbers: Sitting Legislators Running Statewide
Sep 16, 2021 | By the Numbers
0 Number of sitting state representatives to win a statewide race since 1990. It’s been three decades since a House member last won statewide office. Then Reps. Dan Morales (D-San Antonio) and Rick Perry (R-Haskell) won their races for Attorney General and...
By the Numbers: Special Election Turnout
Jul 28, 2021 | By the Numbers
23rd Likely rank of yesterday’s (Tuesday’s) special runoff election in terms of turnout, compared to all legislative and congressional special and runoff elections since 2013 that did not coincide with an even-year November general election. Unofficial...
By the Numbers: Ideal Population Comparison
Jun 3, 2021 | By the Numbers
5 Number of U.S. states with a smaller population than an ideal Texas Senate district after redistricting. The ideal population is the number of people in a district if all districts had equal population. For the upcoming redistricting process, that ideal population...
By the Numbers: First-place Candidates in Runoffs
May 26, 2020 | By the Numbers
82% Winning percentage of runoff candidates who finished 10% or more ahead of their challenger in the primary election since 2002. There have been 175 “open” primary runoff elections for state, legislative and federal offices since 2002, and the candidate who finished...
By the Numbers: Campaign Cash and Primary Success
Feb 19, 2020 | By the Numbers, Campaign Finance
76% Percent of the time an open-seat candidate with the highest contribution total has either won a multi-way primary race outright or advanced to a runoff since 2006. Campaign cash is one of the best indicators of potential success in contested primary races where at...
By the Numbers: Local Election Turnout
Apr 14, 2019 | By the Numbers
9% Average turnout since 1999 in Dallas Co. for an odd-year May election for which the mayor of Dallas is on the ballot. Voter turnout in Texas is low, compared to other states, even under the best of circumstances. About 53% of registered voters cast ballots in the...
By the Numbers: Beto’s 254-county Strategy
Feb 24, 2019 | By the Numbers, Statewide Race Analyses
88 Number of counties where Beto O’Rourke received at least 25% fewer votes in his 2018 race against Ted Cruz than Paul Sadler received in his 2012 race against Cruz. Overall, O’Rourke improved on Sadler’s head-to-head vote percentage in 69 counties, but he lost...
By the Numbers: Double-digit Special Election Leads
Feb 13, 2019 | By the Numbers
5 Number of legislative and congressional candidates who had at least a double-digit plurality in a special election but lost the runoff since 1996. On Tuesday, Republican Fred Rangel became the 14th legislative or congressional special election candidate to finish at...
By the Numbers: Women Legislators
Dec 19, 2018 | By the Numbers
23.8% Percent of Texas legislative seats that were won by women on Election Day or were already filled by women and not up for election this year. This represents an increase of 3.4 percentage points since 2017, but it is the same as in 2009. The national average is...
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